In Trumpadministration's story, the decision to cancel Iran's oil exports in just over a week will have little impact on raw prices. There is enough supply to meet global demand, officials say and the administration's Middle East allies will ride to rescue if the world is in fuel.
The move aims to shrink Iran's oil transport from about 1
Nevertheless, investment banks expect Iranian transport to fall by another hundred thousand barrels a day and further tighten the market. This comes as Venezuela's production craters under the weight of the economic crisis and US sanctions and a new round of lethal civilian conflict bars Libya.
The Trump administration says Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have agreed to fill the gap left by Iranian barrels.
It suggests that OPEC members will soon increase production, reverse-directed production cuts that they implemented in January. OPEC and its oil market association, including Russia, have held about 1.2 million bpd of the market following a fall in oil prices last year.
Saudi Arabia is already pumping about 500,000 bpd during the quota, which gives the empire space to put more barrels on the market as transport from Iran drops.