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Tips for week 10 NFL picks: Good trend for Steelers, massive unfortunate matches, teaser a week and more

Thursday night this week has one of the better match sets we have had throughout the season, as the Panthers lead to Pittsburgh to meet Steelers in a two-team battle. Bettors have flocked to the panthers; After Westgate opened this line at Steelers -6.5 on Sunday night, they quickly moved to 5.5 within two hours and at noon Monday, Steelers had -4 on the board. On Wednesday, the line made another move towards the Panthers, with many books that made it Steelers -3.5.

It's almost like nobody has watched a Thursday game this season. The favorites are 7-2 ATS in Thursday's game this season, and the two losses come with a couple of supplements: one is Rams, who closed as a 7.5-point favorite against the Vikings before he won seven. However, Rams -7 was available for most weeks, and you probably printed if you scored the score. The second game last week, when the line swung from 49ers -2.5 to Raiders -1

.5 on Thursday after it was announced that C.J. Beathard would miss the game. But Nick Mullens proved equally capable of rolling through Raider's Swiss cheese defense.

If you want to ride the trend that has mostly paid on Thursday, you want to be on the favored page. With Steelers, it means that they get a much better value now than a few days ago.

If you want to know which pages I like this week you can find the information on the SportsLine link below, where all my nominal shows are shown in the season along with my five SuperContest pickups each week and lots of great analyzes from a fantastic collection of experts. You can also check where all our CBS Sports personnel land on each game every week here.

Every week in this space I will go behind the lines and choose to get you a bit deeper into what you should know before locking in your games. Let's get to it.

My Picks

Over at SportsLine I have a Thursday patch published for week 10, and I will have much more to Friday night. Join now and use the promo code WHITE for $ 1 on your first month and you can get my and all SportsLine expert choices throughout the year, as well as my SuperContest selects every Saturday.

However, you can get a free pick with my teaser of the week at the end of this article. Enjoy!

Panthers at Steelers (-3.5)

Domestic Distribution: 2.5 Points
Marking Line: Steelers -3.5
Lookahead Line: Steelers -6

Record vs Spread 7 [19659013] 12
Score per Driving License 7 12
Points per Driving Defense 19659012] 20 14
Weighted DVOA 24.5 10.4
Passport Break DVOA rank 6 8
Passport DVOA rank 20 22 7 14

DVOA is a big fan of this Panthers team because they rank No. 3 in 1 12 Driving DVOA rank 7 14

league overall because of their 6-2 start. Yards per game difference goes elsewhere, which gives Steelers the clear edge thanks to a defense that has fifth in net meters per try allowed and nion in meters per rush allowed.

What is DVOA so impressive? Well, the top rated rush break paired with the sixth best pass break in the league will give you a rather high ceilings, but traditional numbers do not paint a pretty rosy picture of the matching game, which is ranked 13th net per try and only has a 300-yard games throughout the season. If the rushing attack does not work in Carolina, the crime can be in trouble, and Steelers has not given up 100 yards to the ground since week 2.

So what teams will you be back in week 10 of the NFL season? And what Super Bowl competitor gets a huge horror? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams win more than 50 percent of simulations, ranging from the model that has exceeded 98 percent of the experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com in the past two seasons.
Bills at Jets (-6.5)

Hometown Breakdown: 3.5 Points
Power Rating: Jets -6.5
Lookahead Line: Jets -7

Record Against Spread [19659044] 3-6 3-6
Revolutions per game difference -1.1 -0.2
Points per run-off 32 28
Points per unit defense bar ] 21 3
Weighted DVOA -39.2 -14.3
Pass offense DVOA rank 32 29
Passport DVOA rank ] 31 30
Driving Defense DVOA Rank 10 11

My power rating line assumes that both layers use backup QB in this game, but if Josh Allen can play, I think the bills give a solid value here. The crime would go from historically bad to bad, and a Jets defense ranked only 22 in adjusted bag speed will probably not have a monster game against the over matched bill.

The matchup has two terrible crimes against two defenses as DVOA is ranked in the top seven (Bills second, Jets seventh). No wonder that the amount for this game is a Mariana Trench level of 36.5 points. With total so low, you almost have to count the bills if you can find it at 7 or better.

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Falcons (-4) at Browns

Division at Home: 2 Points
Marking Line: Falcons -1.5
Lookahead Line: Falcons -1

Record vs Spread 3 – 5 5-4
Revolutions per leak difference 0.1 -1.0
Points per run break 4 29
Points per driving license rank ] 30 11
Weighted DVOA -2.9 -22.1
Pass offense DVOA rank 4 30
Passport DVOA rank 28 2
Run offense DVOA rank 22 21
Driving DVOA rank 31 30

Although Browns gives a bad home field advantage, this line looks away. I have Browns as my 25th team in rating, and I can not put them down in the league because I think the defense is solid despite a series of tough matchups, while the crime has blinked with Baker Mayfield. I have the falcons tied for 12 with the bears. Even with that gap and the reduced HFA, the line works for Falcons -1.5

Falcons defense can be exactly what Browns needs to get started. It's hard to find a measurement that has something positive to say about the Atlantis stop device, so if the Browns defense can give rise to some kind of resistance, the home team may be upset.

Saints (-5.5) in Bengals

Main Field Advantage: 2.5 Points
Effect Rating: Saints -4
Lookahead Line: Saints -4

Record vs spread 6-2 [19659043] 4-4
] Revolutions per game difference -0.1 -0.6
Points per run-off 2 9
Points per driving defense 29 28
Weighted DVOA 15.4 0.4
Pass-Offensive DVOA Rank 5 15
Passport DVOA Ranking 29 16
10 19659045] 16
Driving DVOA rank 3 27

The Saints put together an excellent ATS record, but their YPP differential does not buy the "best team in the league". The violation is excellent, entering No. 4 in overall DVOA and ranking immediately behind the managers in points per unit. But the defense has seen beatable of good fitting teams, ranking 31 in net yards per try may go with 29 in DVOA. They are also average only 3.9 meters per try, good for 27th in NFL, despite a strong DVOA ranking.

Is Bengals what kind of team to take off? They can have big transitional days, but the offensive roof comes down without A.J. Green. And while the Bengals put up big numbers against the bad passports in Tampa Bay and Atlanta, they also beat the bosses. Their efficiency through the air will be the key to which side of this spread wins.

Redskins at Buccaneers (-3)

Home Benefits Benefits: 2.5 Points
Effect Rating: Buccaneers -2.5
Lookahead Line: Pick Them

Record Against Distribution 5-3 3-5
Revolutions per game difference -0.3 -0.1
Points per run-off 22 10
Points per driving license 17 31
Weighted DVOA -5.8 -21.8
Pass offense DVOA rank 22 25 25 ] 22 19659038] You can cast out a lot of what the numbers say about the match with Washington that is about devastating damage to the offensive course. When the damage panel is striking the same device on a team, the questions will cause that device to have associations more than if the damage is spread over different positions. So even though Bucs has the worst defense in the league per DVOA, we should expect their front four to win the battle in the excavations here.

So it will be on Redskin's defense to slow down a talented Buc's passenger crash that ranks fourth in net yards per attempt beyond 10th in DVOA. If Bucs breaks through in crime that Atlanta did against Washington last week, the game over.

Patriots (-6.5) at Titans

Distributed at home: 3 points
Performance: Patriots -4
] Lookahead line: Patriots -6

Record vs spread 6-3 [19659043] 5-3
Revolutions per leak difference 0.1 -0.7
Points per run-off 6 25
Points per driving response length 12 6
] Viktad DVOA 16.7 -9.3
Pass offense DVOA rank 7 [19659047] 26
8 16 8 16 19659045] 16 16 ] The Titans have allowed the smallest points in the league, while the red hot patriots have won six in a row. Something has to be given, and while Titan's defense goes well on the surface, DVOA is not a fan and ranks them 20th overall. Malcolm Butler has proved to be an exploitable responsibility in Titan's secondary, and Bill Belichick will benefit from any weaknesses he can find. Despite a couple of shootouts against the bosses and the bear, the patriots' defense has played well during the team's sex play.

My power assessments think this line is inflated because Titans should be four-point dogs at home in this matchup. But the four worst game of patriots in terms of yardage received were their four road games. If the Titans can continue to limit belongings and shine in the red zone, it should remain in the number.

Packers Delphins (-9.5)

Distributed at Home: 4 Points
Marking Line: Packers -9.5
Lookahead Line: N / A

Record vs Distribution 5-4 ] 3-5
Yards per play differential -0.5 0.5
Points per run-off 26 16
Points per driving response length 19 18
] Viktad DVOA 4.3 4.5
Pass offense DVOA rank [19659047] 19 13
Passport DVOA ranking 23 21
Driving ban DVOA rank 13 5
Driving Defense DVOA Rank 17 17 ] 26

That Dolphins has a winning record after nine matches despite these underlying statistics is quite impressive. Coupled the wide inequality of the YPP differential with Packer's excellent home device advantage, and it should be a runaway Packers cover, right?

Well, DVOA is a much bigger fan of dolphins, and basically also packers them in season despite a crime that has been held for 175 meters two different times this year, including last week's victory over the jets. Packer's defense has been a problem lately, and while you can not fault them from getting on the road and failing to turn off Rams or Patriots, they were not exactly good for goodbye either. Six of Green Bay's eight opponents have scored between 29 and 31 points;

Jaguar on Colts (-3)

Main Field Advantage: 2 Points
Effect Rating: Colts -2.5
Lookahead Line: Colts -2.5

Record vs Distribution 3-5
Weighted by game difference
0.4 -0.2
Points per run-off 30 8
Points per driving license DVOA -4.2 4.4
Pass-Offensive DVOA Ranking 27 18
Pass Defense DVOA Rank 7 25
Driving Prohibition DVOA Rank [19659045] 24 9
Driving Defense DVOA Rank 9 13

Talk about a meeting with two opposites. The Jaguars can not hold on much these days, and they really do not seem to be able to exploit Indy's weakness to the pass. Coltsna rolled into his bye who scored at least 34 points in four of his five games, and while Andrew Luck has shown he can do it with his arm, it's the running game that exploded during his last two games. The Jaguars play good defense against the run and pass, so it is not given. Colts will find a way to move the ball consistently.

Jaguars have won four of the last five in the series, but Colts had won six Just before it went and Jagsna finally met a Colts team trained by Frank Reich, these trends will not mean much, if anything . The Jaguars have also met many Colts QBs, who are not named Andrew Luck in recent years while injured.

Lions at Bears (-6.5)

Main field of advantage: 3.5 points
Efficiency line: Bears -6.5
Lookahead line: Bears -4

Play against spread 5-3 5-3
Lap per league difference -0.5 0.5
] Points per run-off 15 11
Points per driving license 26 ] 1
Weighted DVOA -19.3 22.4
Pass-Offensive DVOA Rank 21 14
Passport DVOA Rank 30 4
Driving Prohibition DVOA Rank 17 7
Driving Defense DVOA Rank 29 2

Both YPP and DVOA say that Bears is a superior superior team to the lions. While you can see that there is strength against strength and weakness against weaknesses with these crimes and defenses, Bears has as good a crime as the lion, if not better according to certain metrics. Lions defense, on the other hand, is clearly the worst unit in this game, with the bottom four rankings in both passport and rush defense, per DVOA.

The combined issue for the lions is that the bears had Khalil Mack and Allen Robinson's exercises in full Wednesday, and both may be ready to return from a long absence. Lions, on the other hand, only traded their most reliable recipients, and the crime predicted themselves against the Vikings last week.

Cardinals on Chiefs (-16.5)

Home Depth: 3 Points
Power Rating Line: Chiefs -13
Lookahead Line: Chiefs -14.5

Play Against Spread 4- 3-1 8-1
Reversal per game difference -1.0 0.9
Points per run-off 31 1
Points per driving license 15 19 1
4 19659044] 4
Driving Defense DVOA Rank 12 32

My power values ​​become quite conservative when talking about big lines, and I do not think the cardinals are among the 3-4 worst teams in the league. But I'm not in rush to score a crime that plays historically well. Football Outsiders said Tuesday that the managers have the third best crime they've tracked (through 1986) after nine matches in a season.

Josh Rosen and the company can have the chance of a back door defense in the second half, saying they are down 34-14. But can the crime come there? If not for the historically bad bills, the Cardinals would easily have the worst crime in the league, per DVOA. The 321 meters of crimes they had against 49ers in their last match before the break were the first time they even got 270. The best way to attack the bosses is with the run but the cardinal is ranked last in the league in both rush DVOA and lap per berry , and they have not managed a 100-meter game on the ground yet. Not from a player, but as a team. Good luck finding a way to this game is competitive.

Raiders Ladder (-9.5)

Home Distribution: 3 Points
Power Cable: Chargers -8.5
Lookahead Line: Chargers -7.5

Play Against Distribution 4-4 [19659043] 2-6
Lap per game difference 1.3 -1.1
Points per run-off 5 27
Points per driving license 13 32
] Viktad DVOA 21.4 -30.0
Passport Break DVOA Rank 2 16
Pass Defense DVOA Rank 13 32
Driving Prohibition DVOA Rank ] 6 27
Drive Defense DVOA Rank 20 25

This seems to be as big a mismatch as the Cardinals Chiefs game, but with a favorite on the road instead of at home. Will it mean? The raiders turned home at Browns in their only win of the season, but they lost at least 14 points in each of their four games since. It takes some tries to be worse than Bucs in terms of passport defense, but Raiders has succeeded.

Chargers on the other hand have the best YPP differential in the league due to a crash almost as good as the bosses and a defense that's great to big rather than mediocre. They won home 26-10 against Raiders back in week 5, and we could come in for a similar result here.

Seahawks at Rams (-9.5)

Home Break: 3 Points
Score Score: Rams -9.5
Lookahead Line: Rams -8

Play Against Spread 4-3-1
-0.2 ]
Offensive DVOA Rank 11 3
Passenger Defense DVOA Rank 5 12
Driving Danger DVOA Rank 14 2
Driving Defense DVOA Ranking [19659047] ] 15 24

Ramsna was a juggernaut before they fell to holy last week but they actually had trouble covering large numbers this year. Outside a single victory over 49ers, Rams has not covered the closing number since week 3. Although the crime has collapsed, the defense has had its problems this year, and above all, it seems as if something could be exploited by a Seattle crime as has spiced 150 rushes in five straight games.

Seahawks put up 31 points in the first meeting between these two teams, and there was nothing spotty about it; They did not start on the Rams side of the field when all matches, and three of their four TD units went at least 74 meters. If they can put together another complete performance on offensive, this game has a good chance of staying inside the number again.

Cowboys at Eagles (-7)

Home Benefits: 3.5 Points
: Eagles -7.5
Lookahead Line: Eagles -6

Record vs Spread 3-5 [19659043] 3-5
Yards per game differential 0.2 -0.3
] Points per run-off 23 17
Points per drive defense 4 7
Weighted DVOA -6.1 -11.3
Pass Offensive DVOA Rank 28 20
Passport DVOA Rank 26 9
Driving Prohibition DVOA rank 11 18
Driving DVOA rank 4 23

The last time these two teams met, Dallas won 6-0. Should we expect another snooze party here? While both defenses have played much better than their counterparts against the offensive, DVOA is not impressed with Cowboy's passport defense, and the eagles may have difficulty slowing down Ezekiel Elliott with their rush defense.

The Cowboys have made a total of 28 points in their last three games against this defense, and a similar offensive production will not be completed. Golden Tate captured all eight of their goals for 132 yards and two touchdowns against this defense earlier this year, and the eagles could try to exploit what was working in the Lions match.

Giants at 49ers (-3) [19659007] Main Field Advantage: 2 Points
Power Interfaces: 49ers -2.5
Lookahead Line: 49ers -2.5

Playback Against Distribution 3-5 24 24 18
Points per Driving License 25 24
Weighted by game difference -0.1 0.1
Points per run DVOA -13.3 -18.0
Pass-Offensive DVOA Rank 23 25
Passport DVOA Ranking 27 17
23 23 26
Driving DVOA rank 18 19

Are you ready for any football? Nick Mullens will try to regain his primetime magic against what on paper is a tough defensive matchup, but not so much. The giants can be 1-7, but five of the losses were seven points or less, so they know how to play in games against most teams. 49ers do not have a particularly strong defense, so if Eli Manning and companies are to find some kind of match, these numbers are matching to do that.

DVOA actually finds that the giants are something better, and when you pair it with 49ers below average home field benefits, it may be mature for an upset.

Week's Teaser

Bears -0.5 vs Lions
Ladders -3.5 on Raiders

Bears is a simple conversation this week, given the wild inequality in statistics between the two The teams and Chicago get stars back on both sides of the ball this week. The second leg in the teaser is a bit more difficult, and even though we do not go through 3 with chargers, they feel like a safe conversation against a Raiders team that has given up. The eagles are also worth considering here if all they have to do is to beat the Cowboys at home with a big divorce.

The week's teaser is 5-4 after Rams could not keep it within one point against Saints. The injured person.

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