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These stocks are trading speak "tells" with prices to move first



President Donald Trump meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the start of their bilateral meeting at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29, 2019.

Kevin Lemarque | Reuters

A slim trade agreement, paused talks and a "fluid" situation are just some of the conflicting reports that have emerged this week when the US and Chinese trade talks officially started on Thursday. For investors who read the tea leaf in every heading, things can get confusing.

But there are some stocks that investors should focus on over the next two days as the real "tell" about calls is making progress.

First, there is CNBC's proprietary China Trade Index for tracking companies with the largest exposure in China and most imports from China.

The index includes the typical trading watches Apple, Nike and Caterpillar and also contains many retail names such as Best Buy, Kohl, Honeywell.

The meter has a wild week when companies move in tandem with trading headers. Most recently, it jumped 2% after President Donald Trump said he met with Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Liu He on Friday and renewed hopes for a trade resolution. Members including Kohl's, Emerson Electric and Caterpillar dropped 2% on Thursday following Trump's comment.

Earlier this week, the index dropped as tensions intensified after the US blacklisted 28 Chinese units over alleged human rights violations against Muslim minorities in Xinjiang, while introducing visa restrictions to Chinese officials. China responded "stay tuned" for retaliation against the black list.

All eyes are on Thursday's high-stakes negotiations as the US and China go against each other on trade. Shares already had a wild ride on Wednesday night following a series of contrasting reports that triggered volatile trading overnight.

Shares with Highest China Revenue

Goldman Sachs screened Russell-1000 Index member companies for those with high income exposure to Greater China, using Company Applications 2018. These stocks will be very sensitive to any signs that trade negotiations are going well this week or badly.

The list is concentrated on chipmakers including Qorvo, Qualcomm, Micron Technology, Nvidia, Broadcom and Intel. Semiconductors are already under pressure after the Trump administration's blacklisted Chinese telecom giant Huawei, a major customer of US-made chips.

YUM! spin-off Yum China has 100% of its sales from China, and its stock has tanked 8.4% over the past three months. Casinos Wynn Resorts and Las Vegas Sands rely heavily on their revenues in China, which have seen their stocks fall 26% and 17.7%, respectively.


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