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Primary Challenger Doom Commanding Presidents: NPR



Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan speaks at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics on April 23. The Centrist Republican has criticized President Trump and holds the opportunity to challenge him for the GOP nomination by 2020.

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Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan speaks at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics on April 23. Centrist Republican has criticized President Trump and openly holds the opportunity to challenge him for the GOP nomination by 2020.

Scott Eisen / Getty Images

A commander-in-chief with an average rating and increasing controversy is usually an easy move for primary contenders.

Watch Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush. All three presidents survived intra-party battles, but the primary battles left their re-election campaigns so hobbled – exposed long-standing weaknesses to their bases – which each continued to lose for four years in the White House.

But even if a viable GOP contender for President Trump pops up, he or she is unlikely to make much progress or have a lasting impact on the president's chances in November. This is because Trump's firm grasp of the Republican Party could help him appear not only victorious but relatively unharmed by a primary challenge.

Political polarization is higher than ever, according to Professor of History and Public Affairs Julian Zelizer, Princeton University. And the record of the electorate who likes Trump is not bidding, no matter what the president can say or do. At the same time, those who do not like him are determined in their contempt and leave a smaller block of convincing voters than in previous elections.

"Trump has essentially recreated the Republican Party in his image," Zelizer said. "So many people will not believe in anything the Mueller report says, and they take whatever Trump says as a gospel. It's just another barrier that you probably didn't have in a post-Watergate era." [19659013] For 2020, Trump Campaign Woos Big Donors who beat it in 2016 “/>

in 1976, President Gerald Ford was already in a weakened position. The Republicans were a guilty who had never been elected president (or even vice president) and were uniquely challenged in the aftermath of the Watergate scandal, President Richard Nixon's resignation, and his own subsequent controversial forgiveness of Nixon. So it's not surprising that former California government Ronald Reagan set a close resurrection on him.

During the primaries, momentum swung back and forth between the two GOP candidates. The first vote in the vote of the Republican National Convention in 1976 was razor: 1,187 delegates to Ford and 1,070 to Reagan, only a 117 vote difference. But Ford clearly managed the 1 130 delegates needed to secure the nomination. Such a fragile ending would prove to be prospective months later when he lost former Georgia head of government Jimmy Carter and netted 240 electoral votes to Democrats' 297. ; Madison Square Garden, August 14, 1980. Kennedy's powerful primary challenge contributed to Carter's eventual loss to Ronald Reagan's falling.

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Four years later, in the midst of a weak economy and the hostage crisis in Iran, Carter himself would be hammered when he sought a second term. Massachusetts then Edward Kennedy, whose brothers had both sought the Presidency, saw an opening. But despite strong numbers at the beginning of the primary, Kennedy would peter out when his personal scandals appeared and Carter simply organized him. Their fight would continue through the 1980 Democratic Convention, but Kennedy, who finished with just over a third of the top votes, admitted he couldn't win.

The famous, not really a concession number Kennedy gave at the New York City Convention presented his own idealistic vision instead of trying to increase Carter.

"A few hours ago, the campaign ended," the political tip told the audience. "For all those who care about our care, the work continues. The cause continues. The hope still lives. And the dream should never die."

As a result, it was Kennedy who got the right applause and acted as the hero of the 1980 DNC, not the existing president who had actually won the appointment. Against a renewed Reagan in the election, Carter was walloped and won only 49 electoral votes for the Republican's 489.

Having claimed over a third of the 1992 New Hampshire GOP vote, candidate Pat Buchanan holds copies of a local newspaper with a title which evokes a broken campaign promise of the existing Republican President George HW Buske.

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Having claimed over one-third of the vote in the 1992 New Hampshire GOP primary, candidate Pat Buchanan holds copies of a local newspaper with a title that evokes a broken campaign promise of existing Republican President George H.W. Bush.

Pat Sullivan / ASSOCIATED PRESS

Maybe it's President George H.W. Bush's re-war as the best predicted Trump's era. The former vice president and the CIA director saw the sky's high approvals in the aftermath of the Gulf War. But the economy would slow and give conservative commentator Pat Buchanan a breakdown that he could utilize by carrying out a bid based on fighting "cultural wars".

Buchanan would fall and stop taking less than a quarter of the primary vote from Bush, and billionaire Ross Perot, who runs independently in the election, also damaged the established chances. But there was an anti-establishment vein within the GOP Buchanan may have helped awaken. It may have taken decades to fully manifest, but many saw Trump as the final execution of what Buchanan helped shape.

The story does not always repeat itself

Trump seems to have a stronghold on his party that no candidate can shake. As Barbara Perry, head of the University of Virginia Miller Center Presidential Studies, said, Trump has simply proved that "all previous rules do not apply".

"When we look back at the lessons on history, they can repeat themselves, but they do not have that far," Perry said. "He can be challenged by either a strong gadget or a strong personality or a strong presence in the party "Just like Ronald Reagan was to Ford in 1976 and Ted Kennedy was Carter in 1980." But I don't see it on the horizon. "

There are some potential contenders coming to Trump, but Perry is right there less than nine months before the nomination process begins, no republican has stood out as a formidable alternative.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld is the only major advertised candidate so far after running to Vice President of the 2016 Libertarian Party ticket with former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson. really do not have booklets by former White House contenders who can irrevocably hurt a seated president. Larry Hogan, who has already made some early relocations.

Frequent drum agitators as before Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake and former Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker was also floating early. Flake has since ruled out a 2020 run, but the newly retired Corker still leaves open and says recently that Trump "deliberately split" the American people and someone should challenge him. "

" Philosophically you can look at it and say it would be good for our country should it happen, Corker said during the TIME 100 last month's summit. "If you had a real primary, where you had someone who really listened to and in fact, things we talked about – and I could go through a list of them – they would actually be properly debated."

It may once have been other names of that list – prominent 2016 doubters like South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham or former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. Despite his blowing criticism nearly four years ago against the polarizing reality video show host and businessman, they have also come around and been loyal ally Trump in the case of Graham or once part of his administration, with Haley serving as UN ambassador until last year .

The president's voting number reflects the diminishing influence that the critics of the time may have had in the party – winning over the converter, even though he may have polarized more independent voters.

The latest NBC news / Wall Street Journal survey shows a staggering 90 percent of Republicans approving the job Trump has made, leaving little room for a challenger to take a foothold. And for now there is no GOP option that seems like they could really compete with Trump, given the unprecedented way he has attempted to centralize the Republican National Committee for its re-election and maintain a primary challenge.

Tribalism is a compelling Corker also to complain and say at the TIME event that Trump "has an unusual visceral contact with the Republican base it is built today … It is in some ways where the voter is today, where it has become very tribal in nature. "


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