It has been over three years since the British voted to leave the EU. They are still in the midst of a Brexit chaos. A Prime Minister has resigned, the Brexit date has been postponed twice and now Prime Minister Boris Johnson's plan can go down.
Following Johnson's letter-stunt, in which the EU calls for Brexit to be postponed at the same time as the EU asked not to give it to them, John McDonnell, Labour's fiscal spokesman, accuses the Prime Minister of "acting like a spoiled snowman."
– Not my letter
– He acts a bit like a spoiled snowman. Parliament made a decision that he should follow. And this idea of sending a new letter contradicting the first, I think it's a blow to what Parliament and the court have decided, McDonnell told Sky News Sunday morning.
Johnson has sworn that he will get Britain from the EU on October 31
– Johnson treats Parliament and the justice system with disdain, McDonnell has also said according to NTB.
Do you think Brexit is confusing? At the bottom of the case you can read the expert's four possible scenarios – briefly explained.
– Special behavior
NTNU professor and UK expert Kristian Steinnes says that Johnson's letter finding is outside British politics.
– It is special behavior, not least British people who are usually formed and behaved diplomatically, he tells Dagbladet.
Earlier this autumn, Parliament passed a law called the "Benn Act", which meant that if no exit agreement was approved on October 19, the prime minister must write a letter to the EU asking for an extension of the negotiating period.
– The purpose of the law is for Johnson to file a waiver application and he has done so. In addition, he writes that he does not want to postpone. That is unnecessary. Everyone knows what he means; he would rather "lie dead in a ditch" than ask for ejection, says Steinnes.
Just weeks after the Supreme Court ruled that the prime minister's interruption of parliament was illegal, several suggest his attempts to undermine the "Benn Act" of sending two letters could send him to court again, the BBC writes.
May end up in court
The Guardian also writes that Johnson can be held in contempt of court. According to the British ledger, lawyers for three anti-Brexit campaigns will appear in court on Monday, claiming the government is breaking its promises to the court.
– Can everything go to court?  – Yeah, it's not impossible. He can be accused of breaking the law. There are strong forces on both sides. Steinnes is unlikely to go to court.
– What kind of consequences will it have for Johnson?
– Nothing now. They will not kill Johnson until they are absolutely certain that there is no risk of "no deal". It will be a new choice at some point. It's about when, not about, says Steinnes.
Johnson will vote on the Brexit agreement already on Monday, during provided the Head of the Lower House accepts it. The question is whether it is permissible to vote on the same question in the House several times. According to John Bercow, MP, it will be ready on Monday.
Foreign Minister Dominic Raab on Sunday claims that there is now enough support in Parliament to get the Prime Minister's Brexit agreement, according to the BBC.
Sky News also writes that there are positive signs that Johnson's agreement may receive enough support to be approved.
– I think it's on the edge. No one knows for sure. It can go through and it can't go through. But that is not impossible, says Steinnes.
Adopted the Letwin proposal
On Thursday, October 17, the EU summit gave green light to Johnson's Brexit agreement, but two days later he had problems at home. On Saturday, he asked Parliament to end "a painful chapter", but Parliament voted to postpone a vote in the Brexit agreement by 322 to 306.
Proposal, which is to postpone the entire vote until the agreement is concluded in British team. In this way, one can be absolutely sure that the United Kingdom will not leave the EU without an agreement.
Johnson said he intends to have this legislation in place next week. According to NTB, his plan is to submit a proposal already on Tuesday. There are many who doubt that it is possible to make such a short notice.
– Can he get legislation in place within the deadline?
– I think it's very optimistic. Nothing is impossible, but it is very likely that further legislation will be proposed. If the House of Commons gets to vote on these, then time goes on, says Steinnes.
– Big consequences
– There will be no delays. I will do my best to come to the Brexit agreement on October 31, Johnson said just after the vote on Saturday.
However, because of the House of Commons decision, he was therefore forced to send a request to the EU for deferral.
Steinnes considers that the EU is more likely to grant a committee than the Union does not.
– A "no deal" Brexit will have major consequences for the EU. I think they will postpone. Johnson has applied for a postponement in January, but it is up to the EU to decide how long it will last. It could be a couple of weeks or a half, he says.
However, a postponement to January requires the approval of all 27 EU heads of state and government. French President Emmanuel Macron's office has already said they have no interest in being postponed again.
It is expected that it will take a few days for Brussels to clarify the matter.
Here are Steinne's four possible scenarios in the Brexit chaos:
1. All legislation is adopted within the deadline and expires on 31 October. It may still happen, but is unlikely.
2nd Postponement. The British could risk the EU saying no. Then they move out without agreement.
3rd Parliament can be re-elected to see if the new Parliament can achieve anything.
4th New referendum in some variant.
The British expert believes that the last two alternatives are likely, while pointing out that the whole process is unpredictable.