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What consequences does Trump decide on this Tuesday to restore sanctions?



United States President Donald Trump May 5, 2018 in Washington – Zach Gibson / NEWSCOM / SIPA

After weeks of questions and fears, the US President is expected to decide this Tuesday at 18h (Paris time, 14h GMT). Donald Trump, who for a long time promised to "disassemble"
The Iranian nuclear agreement can put its threats on Tuesday despite international warnings. Why such a decision and with what risks?

"Killing" the Historical Agreement

Diplomats and observers are convinced: In addition to last minute change, the United States President should report from the White House to restore, at least in part, the sanctions suspended in return for Iran's mortgage in 201

5 not to acquire nuclear weapons .

This may experts believe "kill" Tehran's agreement with states in Vienna Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom and Germany after more than ten years of tensions over the Iranian nuclear program and a diplomatic marathon

All other signatories defended until the end of this compromise, the "historic European Parliament emphasizes that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which conducts very accurate inspections, has regularly confirmed Teheran's compliance with the terms of the text which aims to guarantee the non-military nature of its nuclear program.

"We are very determined to save this agreement because this agreement keeps us from nuclear proliferation," said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian on Monday. German counterpart Heiko Maas has feared "a failure will lead to escalation" in the Middle East

Trump regrets this agreement?

Because he was just a candidate, President Donald Trump condemns this "action plan" concluded under the administration of his democratic predecessor Barack Obama, which he blames "catastrophic shortcomings".

In January, he issued an ultimatum for Europeans giving them May 12 to "cure" him on several points: IAEA inspections; The gradual suspension of 2025 of certain restrictions on Iran's nuclear activities, which he considers to be a kind of time bomb; but also the fact that it does not directly attack Tehran's ballistic missile programs or its role as "destabilizing" in several Middle East countries (Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, etc.).

And Paris, London and Berlin, who swore a few months ago that through this agreement, all agreements but nothing but the deal, played the game by negotiating with American diplomats solutions to these problems.

Demand Donald Trump is "legitimate", acknowledged the British Foreign Minister Boris Johnson on Monday in Washington. But "we think we can be harder on Iran, respond to the president's concern without throwing the baby out of bathing water."

President of France, Emmanuel Macron, showing his agreement with his American counterpart On April 24, he proposed the White House to negotiate a "new deal" with Iran, which around the "pillar" 2015 builds another "pillar" to respond to US problem. German Chancellor Angela Merkel followed a few days later and admitted that the current agreement "is not enough".

Donald Trump managed to change Europeans, says Robert Malley, former negotiator with Iran under President Obama, and current President of the International Crisis Group

Macron rescues a "war"

Because of well-negotiated negotiations between diplomats from both The Atlantic, Emmanuel Macron, did not hide its pessimism. According to him, the Republican billionaire is threatening to throw the door "because of domestic policies". And this change can have very serious consequences. Interviewed with Spiegel the French President went as far as fearing a war: "We would open Pandora's box, it might be a war," he told the newspaper while saying that Donald Trump was not meant to be .

Despite international misconception, the slogan "America First", "America First" already states that the president of the world's leading power denied several multilateral commitments, such as the Paris Agreement on Climate or the Pacific Free Trade Agreement and in response to another campaign promise that he has decided to acknowledge Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

Tuesday's announcement will also have consequences that are still difficult to predict, and partly because Washington will place the slider to restore US sanctions. Europeans have said they intend to agree on whatever happens

What should Iran do?

Currently Tehran where ultra-conservative co-existence of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and more moderate leaders around President Hassan Rohani has become hot and cold and threatens to leave the 2015 agreement in turn to revive and speed up the nuclear program or propose that they stay there if the Europeans represent the American absence

In addition to the first reactions, there should be a phase of negotiations behind the scenes. Even after Tuesday, "there is still a lot of diplomatic efforts to do," recently told the new US Foreign Minister Mike Pompeo.

>> To read also: Iran's nuclear talks n & # 39; is "somehow negotiable", says Hassan Rohani Emmanuel Macron

>> To read also: Iran's nuclear weapon: Washington will regret "as ever" to leave the agreement, warning Iran


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