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Raw production still does not reduce the decline

Despite the messages on the subject, Pemex has not been able to maintain its oil production.

In May, the oil company produced 1,663 million barrels of crude oil per day, the lowest figure since December 1979 with extract 1.65 million and is about 12 thousand barrels a day less than a month before, in April when it was a thousand 675 million.

It was only April 23, when President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said his government managed to stabilize the downturn in production. But with May figures, the company spun its third month fall in production so far in 201


Compared to February and March, Pemex in the fifth month this year produced 38,000 and 28,000 barrels less respectively.

Crude oil production in May, compared to the same month last year, reported a decrease of 10.1 percent.

By contrast, crude oil exports in May spread a daily average of 1 million 205,000. Daily barrels, their second highest level in the first five months, resulting in a recovery in revenue this way by $ 2,000 million, 21 percent higher than in April.

In addition, petrol They touched their lowest point during the year by an average of 483 thousand 600 barrels per day

To continue with the production decline, specialists expect two scenarios: a new revision of the oil company's qualification, and that the goals set by the government for 2019 are not met.

"What may happen is that tomorrow the company needs new financial support from the Federal Government in order to meet its commitments or avoid falling to lower levels," says Alejandro Saldaña, economist at the finance group Ve Por Más.

"What can get consequences? Not only that the company's credit profile has a disadvantage, that these resources coming from the federal government may also have little pressure on the country's credit profile. Although some credit rating agencies have already drawn attention or made adjustments to the credit rating, other authorities may be involved tomorrow, "added the financial expert.

On the other hand, in the criteria of the general economic policy for the year notes that the target for oil production is one million 847 thousand barrels per day, a target that at the end of the year's fifth month seems long, since the average production between January and May this year was 1 million 663 thousand barrels per day, according to Pemex. [19659014] "What matters most in these figures is that there is no stabilization. If the platform stabilized, we can believe that the government is in time to achieve its goal, says Arturo Carranza, a specialist in the sector.

"We will not see at least the next five or six months a change of trend, it will come to the end of the year that we could see a change (…). With the production scenarios and what has been handled this year is not the truth (it will reach the goal), "says an analyst at Procura Regulatoty Consulting.

In that sense, Carlos Serrano, chief economist for BBVA Mexico, estimates that the problem will be solved with more investment, "I see no solution that does not mean resuming farms," ​​he said. 19

With information from Jeanette Leyva *

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