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predicts a decrease of 9.8%, according to a Citibanamex survey



Mexico’s economy will suffer a 9.8 percent decline this year, according to the latest survey published by Citibanamex and conducted with 28 financial institutions and brokerage firms.

This forecast reflects a decline similar to that estimated in the latest survey by the Banco de México (Banxico), where a 9.9 percent reduction in gross domestic product (GDP) is expected this year.

The previous survey conducted by the banking company reflected a decrease of 9.6 percent, which indicates the twelfth consecutive decline during the year.

The survey continues to reflect great uncertainty, as the forecast area is a decrease of 7.2 to 12 percent for this year 2020.

Oxford Economics is now the institution that has given the most optimistic forecast and estimates that the economy will decline by 7.2 percent this year.

On the other hand, Signum Research maintains the estimated decline of 12 percent, the survey’s most pessimistic forecast.

Citibanamex, a company that regularly implements this consensus, has also maintained its estimate of the economy for this year with a fall of 11.2 percent.

In 2021, the recovery would be 3.4 percent, which means an improvement of 20 basis points from the survey two weeks ago.

As for the exchange rate, the consensus remains unchanged, as they expect it to reach a parity of 22.94 pesos per dollar by the end of 2020, while in 2021 it would be 22.70 pesos per currency.

“Despite some volatility in the foreign exchange market, consensus forecasts at the end of 2020 have remained in the range of 22.50 / 23.00 pesos per dollar since the second half of March,” they indicated in the document.

The median estimate for inflation at the end of this year rose to 3.53 percent from 3.40 percent two weeks ago, while the corresponding forecast for 2021 remained at 3.50 percent.

Finally, 20 experts consulted that Banxico will lower the reference level by 50 points at its next government meeting on August 13, which would close this year at 4.5 percent.


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