Home / Sports / Kevin Durant ruptured Achilles injury: How it affects NBA Finals, free agency fallout, and superstar's long-term outlook

Kevin Durant ruptured Achilles injury: How it affects NBA Finals, free agency fallout, and superstar's long-term outlook



In the worst of worst-case scenarios, Kevin Durant, who had returned to the NBA Finals after more than four weeks off with what was initially diagnosed as a mild calf strain, collapsed to the floor in the second quarter of Game 5 And you knew it was bad right away. Durant grabbed at his right Achilles tendon . He had to be helped off the floor. And as cameras followed him back to the locker room, it wasn't just the NBA Finals that shifted.

It was the entire NBA.

On Wednesday, Durant announced he underwent surgery to repair a ruptured Achilles tendon.

We know that Durant was the biggest free-agent domino in what is expected to be a landscape-shifting summer. He may still be. But that's certainly up in the air. As are these NBA Finals, as somehow the Warriors win a Durant's absence to win game 5 1

06-105 and crawl to within 3-2 as the series shifts to Oakland for the final game in the history of Oracle Arena.

From the injury itself, to all the fallout in terms of how it impacts this series and this summer, here is everything you need to know about the Durant situation.

The Play

Durant had scored 11 points on 3-of-3 shooting from deep and looked terrific in his return . The Warriors were humming offensively and it honestly looked like the fairytale stories of Durant coming back to save the day were within the reach of reality. And then this happened:

Here's a closer look at what we now know is the Achilles tendon snapping:

Diagnosis

Again, it's a ruptured right Achilles tendon. Durant has had successful surgery.

How long will Durant be out?

"It's 8-12 months," Dr. Alan Beyer, an orthopedic surgeon and executive director of the Hoag Orthopedic Institute, told CBS Sports on Tuesday. "Usually closer to the year from what we've seen with other NBA players having this injury."

DeMarcus Cousins, of course, suffered this same injury in February of 2018 while with the Pelicans, and he returned to action with the Warriors in January of 2019. John Wall recently ruined his Achilles in an offseason accident at his home, and the expectation around the league is that he could miss all of next year, and that's with a head start on Durant in the recovery process. Bottom line: There's a chance that Durant will miss all of next season.

Will he ever be the same player?

"Very tough to say. As we saw with Kevin and initial injury, everyone responds differently," Dr. Beyer CBS Sports. "I say this: When you are reconstructing an Achilles, you are still trying to get the link that it was before, it is very difficult to get that right. Then, in the healing process itself, you get some scarring. and you get some contraction of some tissue, so the tendon can wind up a little bit more than it started.

"Now, in an everyday average person, this is just because you're only asking them to return to everyday functions like walking, regular jogging, just normal, non-explosive movements, "Dr. Beyer continued." In an NBA player who has to jump explosively and cut and move in quick bursts, that's a huge obstacle to overcome. And it's not just the straight vertical leap. If you are just a little bit of your leap, for instance, the shooting arc that you used for life is actually a little bit destroyed. So it impacts everything. It can be a devastating injury. I mean you can count the guys who have had this injury and come back to be close to what they were before. "CBS Sports NBA Analyst and former NBA player Raja Bell was more direct.

" I don't think Kevin Durant will ever be the same player, "Bell said." That doesn't mean he won't still be really good. He's 6-foot-10 and shoots the skin off the ball. But in terms of him being the player we've seen to this point, no, I don't think he can be that after this. Find me one athlete who has been 100 percent the same after an Achilles tear. "

Durant is 30 years old. He'll be 31 by the start of next season. He's not a pup, but he's not over the hill by any stretch, so it's relatively light, so it's not like a lot of weight is on that Achilles as in the case of, say, a DeMarcus Cousins. At the same time, KD relies much more on his explosiveness and change of direction, both This is really an unknown, but even if Durant comes back at 85 or 90 percent of his old self, that's still an elite NBA player.

For some sobering perspective on players who've returned from an Achilles injury, look at this chart below (VORP is Value Over Replacement Player, and is just another way of saying how these players were post-Achilles; injury)

How will Durant's injury affect the free agent market? 19659008] The few people I've talked to in the league since this happened are of the opinion that there will still be a robust market for Durant's services, and that there will be teams still willing, and in fact eager, to offer him max contract – which would be four years, $ 164 million if the signs outside of golden state – even with the knowledge that will probably miss the first year of that deal in rehab, and perhaps it would not be until the second year that he makes a full recovery. We've seen Gordon Hayward, for example, through a year of rehab and another year of struggling to rediscover his game.

"People seem to be unaffected by [the injury]," one Western Conference executive told CBS Sports on Tuesday. "Delayed but expensive gratification, I guess."

There is the possibility that perhaps Durant would consider exercising his 2019-20 player option with the Warriors for $ 31.5 million, rehab all year, possibly come back for the next year's playoffs, and then enter free agency in 2020. But that's unlikely. Speaking on ESPN's "Get Up," Adrian Wojnarowski had this to say :

Thirty one and a half million dollars for the next season. That's really if you couldn't find any other team to commit to you on a contract. Because of the opts out of the contract, and even if it does a short deal with another team – a two-year deal – that starts at $ 38 million. I still think there's going to be a market for Kevin Durant to get a long-term – whether it's max or near max contract. He'll be 32 before he plays again, if indeed he misses all of next season. But that $ 31 million is really there if there's nothing else out there after canvassing the league, or if the Warriors decided that they didn't want to do that. I'd be shocked if the warriors were not willing to go long term with Kevin Durant on a deal. But basically he'll be a $ 38 million redshirt player for whoever has signs with next year, or opts in a Golden State.

ESPN's Bobby Marks confirmed the same:

In other words, all the teams that were going to go after Durant before this injury are likely to go after him. The same option does exist as a long-term signing in Golden State, as well. If you want to get a lot of money, you can count on the unknown of how long he will recover, he could sign a five-year, $ 221 million max with the Warriors.

One exec texted CBS Sports this:

"I would think Bob Myers gift [Durant’s business partner and manager, Rich] Kleiman some kind of assurance if K.D. plays [in Game 5 and the rest of the series]unless we max K.D. out."

Translation: The warriors knew it was a risk to put Durant back out there. So did Durant, who obviously didn't feel ready to return through the first four games of the series, and there were even reports that his attempt to go through practice on Sunday didn't go well and he was shut down pretty early.

This is not to say the Warriors were irresponsible, and surely Durant, ultimately, made the final call. He wanted to help his team. The belief with this executive is that in the worst-case scenario, the warrior would honor that risk and sacrificed much worse, which is obviously what happened.

In the end, Durant will still be fine from a financial standpoint and he'll probably have his pick of teams as a free agent. But that doesn't mean that a whole has not been altered for all involved.

A few specific free agency fallouts:

  • New York Knicks: This was a huge hit to the Knicks. Here they have been planning for two years to open up the cap space necessary to sign not just Durant, but a second max free agent to go with him this summer. Now, if they get Durant, they'll probably not play for them next season. Does that affect the decision of a second star to join him? The Knicks might be willing to cash in a year and accept being asked for Durant, but will Kyrie Irving or another star player want to do the same? Do the Knicks now possibly tank another year as Durant rehabs, and try to get Anthony Davis as a free agent in 2020? What once seemed like a slam in terms of the knuckles getting stuck and perhaps one other star and becoming a contender overnight is now all but off the table, at least for the next season.
  • Wide-open West: When the thought was that Durant would leave Golden State as a free agent, we knew the West would be more open than it has been at any point in this five-year Golden State run. Well, probably not playing anywhere this year. So the West is wide open. With that in mind …
  • Los Angeles Clippers: The Clippers only have room for one max free agent unless they trade Danilo Gallinari. If they can't land Kawi, they would be willing to spend their time at a guy in Durant who probably won't play for them next season? If not, how will they use that cap space? One-year deals to take a shot in 2020 at Anthony Davis? Settle for lesser star? This really feels like Kawhi or bust now for the Clippers.
  • Brooklyn Nets: The Nets traded Allen Crabbe to the Hawks and doing so opened the possibility of creating two max salary spots this summer (they would have to let D'Angelo Russell walk to open up the second spot ). Kyrie has been heavily liked to Brooklyn, and Kyrie and Durant together have obviously been a dream of many teams. Same situation as with the Knicks: Would Kyrie want to wait a year for Durant in Brooklyn? The upside is the Nets are a playoff team already, and Kyrie could take them further and wait for Durant in 2020 to really open the championship window.
  • Los Angeles Lakers: Perhaps the Lakers are the biggest winner here, as bad as that sounds when the domino starts all this is a guy losing a year of his career. But think about it: If Kyrie was thinking of hooking up with a second star next season, with K.D. out, the only place he can do without any fuss is with the Lakers, who have LeBron in place and are to be the "leaders in the clubhouse" to trade for Anthony Davis. A Kyrie-LeBron reunion is starting to feel like a real possibility.
  • Boston Celtics: Very simply, if the allure for Boston leaving Boston was hooking up with Durant, this makes it more likely that they just stay in Boston and they trade for Anthony Davis?
  • Kawhi becomes the prize: Some people thought Kawhi Leonard was the prize to start with, but he surely is now. The Clippers, Lakers and Raptors, according to most people I've talked to around the league, feel like the favorites, in no particular order. Think about the Lakers trading for Davis and landing Kawhi as a free agent. Yikes.
  • Houston Rockets: They've already said their whole team is on the table as Houston is dead-set on putting a title team on the floor no matter what it takes. Durant be out, like it will for everyone else, would appear to incentivize Houston to get aggressive now. Does that precipitate a blockbuster move for Houston? Is this the catapult to trade Chris Paul and / or Clint Capela?

Finally, the Finals moving forward

On the road, after the Durant injury, after trailing by six with three minutes to play, with Kawhi having scored 10 straight points – for the Warriors to somehow win that Game 5, wow. That was incredible. But can they win the Finals two more? Here are the odds to win the series as of Tuesday, via Westgate:

  • Warriors: +275
  • Raptors: -350

Even with Durant out, the Warriors' series price got better for the obvious reason that they now only to win two games rather than three. But the Raptors are still a favorite. Our SportsLine projections have the Raptors winning the series in 75 percent of simulations. Toronto has seen the better team for most of the series, and the Warriors' depth is almost non-existent. Also, Durant out the defense is once again so vulnerable to Toronto's multiple playmakers. Boogie Cousins, who was unplayable in Games 3 and 4, is going to have to give big minutes. Same for Quinn Cook. And Steph and Klay are going to have to shoot the lights out.

But it's doable.

Game 6 is the last game in the history of Oracle arena. That place is going to be rocking. Do you really see the Warriors losing that game at home? If they get through it, now it's Game 7, and anything can happen.

"I think the Raptors are too good and too deep for Golden State without Durant," a league scout CBS Sports on Tuesday. "I was super impressed with winning [Game 5] under those conditions. Those guys are champions, man. But it's just an uphill climb with everything they do. I know the home court is big and everyone's talking about the Oracle sendoff and all that, but I just think Toronto gets it done in Game 6. I really do. "


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