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government “secret document” (with three scenarios)



A confidential document, a “secret file” prepared by experts from the Istituto Superiore di Sanit√† and the Ministry of Health, analyzes what may happen in the autumn in Italy in the event of a second wave of coronavirus. Fiorenza Sarzanini talks about it today Corriere della Serawhich lists the outlook for the autumn, three possible scenarios for the so-called phase 3 and five solutions already studied by the experts, with interventions to contain infections and deal with any emergencies.

According to this document, the hypothesis of a second wave in the autumn in our country is not a probable scenario, but it is indeed possible. In the documentation ̵

1; writes Corsera – we are talking about reopening of schools which in turn could raise the epidemiological curve. In the document, it is believed that the resumption of lessons, with students, teachers and staff returning to school, can affect the infection rate Rt by + 0.4.

The government’s “secret document” about the possible second wave of coronavirus

So what are the three possible scenarios for the fall? The first scenario adopted by the ISS experts and the Ministry of Health in the confidential document concerns the so-called “localized transmission”, or a situation similar to the current one, with the possibility of an increase in the Rt infection index due to new localized outbreaks and different situations from region to region.

writes courier: “In this case, it is necessary to anticipate an adequate response in terms of the traceability of contacts. The second scenario is worrying as it is an increase in cases, albeit manageable without extraordinary intervention at the level of national health care”. In the second scenario, we therefore assume “a large number of patients who end up in hospital, but without causing an out-of-control check-up, and others who can manage the infection and symptoms by staying at home”. Finally, there is the third scenario, the worst: it adopts a second wave of Covid-19 with a very large number of new cases and many hospital admissions to intensive care.

So far the possible scenarios for phase 3. And the solutions? The experts studied allegedly five interventions to contain infections and deal with all emergencies during the fall months. They range from the need to encourage the coordination of the regions, to constantly monitor the situation, to the “guarantee of official communication”:

“This means that the numbers of infections, the sticks made, the sick and everything related to the possible spread of the epidemic, must always be updated with reliable data from the regions that give the exact perception of the development or regression of the epidemic.”

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The fourth point of the expert document concerns “a constantly updated operational plan for schools and housing for the elderly”. Finally, there is talk of strengthening healthcare facilities and the need to have a sufficient number of beds available in hospitals, both in regular wards and in intensive care units, to ensure that the system is tight and to prevent high-risk situations.


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