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Hard Brexiteers are trying to take down Theresa May, but here's why they are likely to fail



T he Westminster rumor remains with the expectation that the British Prime Minister Theresa May faces an overriding vote on Parliament's floor to abolish her. I think such a leadership meeting will come, but I also believe that May will survive it.

First of all, some context. Rumors on Tuesday follow the Prime Minister's attitude on Monday of a planned vote on her Brexit Agreement on Revocation with the European Union. That decision had great fear of the parliament. The BBC's chief political reporter notes that the leader of the "1

922 Committee", which governs conservative leadership competitions, is now expected to have received letters from 48 or 15 percent of conservative MPs who indicate their lack of confidence in May. If this is correct, May is likely to meet a confidence vote before Friday, coming from its own conservative party.

However, in order to survive, the prime minister only has to win a simple majority of parliamentarians. And that's why I think she's alive. The simple question in maize's service is that while she is not adored by many conservative parliamentarians, she does not dislike either. Most Conservative MEPs see May as a dull but hard-working prime minister trying to deal with an almost impossible task when negotiating Britain's positive Brexit recall. These parliamentarians know that May is more popular than the one they fear most: the opposition leader of the Labor Party and Jeremy Corbyn. Recent public research surveys suggest that Corbyn, with maize approval, is only 35 percent, only 29 percent. What is also noticeable, however, is that maize's personal ratings have increased with a few points in recent weeks. Most Britons seem to think May is doing the best she can with a hard hand. Conservative MPs who would otherwise be opposed may be afraid that the challenge to her would now be at risk of complicating the public and building speed at work to work on a general election.

It is also clear who among the conservative leaders would replace May. Although this would only be relevant, May was to lose a confidence vote, it is close consideration. The complexity here is abundant. For one, while former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson is favored by those who want a deeper break from the EU than May, many other conservative parliamentarians now offer Johnson as an unreliable eccentric. Other possibilities include the more-Brexit-moderate but charismatic MP, Sajid Javid. Again, many conservatives are afraid that the public can reject the party to be seen as betraying May.

For all of these reasons, I suspect that May will survive the forthcoming vote. Still, it will be close.


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