As Greece is preparing to turn a page, a big bang business seems to be outside the door. At a time when international markets are constantly growing, Greece, which comes from the decade of the big financial crisis, is a relatively safe investment for international funds . The investment tournament announcements come from all directions. This is evident from the unprecedented rally in bonds that beat a 10-year return of 2.55%, the stock market of 37% at the beginning of the year, great interest in the acquisition of Greek companies, investments in tourism, real estate,.
Climate change with a key catalyst that 2019 is an election year has begun to feel since the beginning of the year. But it was gaining momentum after the outcome of the European elections, which was interpreted as a clear indication of the forthcoming political change. Investment interest in Greece is ahead of the door, but it is, of course, conditional on the events confirming the expectations of a new government with strong self-confidence and willingness to invest.
The election outcome [1
It really is not a magical picture that will change overnight, but a process that will begin and scale in the length depending on the circumstances. Barriers cannot be eliminated immediately and drastically because the country does not have an investment class from the rating agencies and will need at least one year of consistent economic policy to acquire it. In addition, there are still barriers to capital controls. Restrictions may have been mitigated, but it is difficult for all managers of a long-term fund to submit a proposal to a country with capital restrictions to its investment committee.
But the markets are moving fast, opportunities are not waiting, and Greek banks still have a large stock of red corporate loans, which they must be released within two and a half years. Particularly after the European Parliament elections, market confidence seems to be returning to Greece. For example, while there were money that they saturated a few weeks ago – that is, selling without holding shares in anticipation of the continued decline – the banks have issued a debenture loan this week. That is, a bond that if the bank presents a problem becomes shares. Almost the same people who a few months ago even refused a formal meeting to listen, now willingly offered more than 800 million for the bond
The Greek banking system since 2008 was blocked from such bond bond issues. Ethics is now being prepared for a bond issue – probably the next few weeks – and similar models are also being made to Alpha Bank. The drastic decline in Greek bond yields makes it easier for Greek banks to issue subordinated loans, for securitization of loans and, of course, for lower costs for guarantees in the redemption schemes discussed with the European authorities. At the same time, it leaves room for further reduction in deposit rates, as the average forward rate in Greece is 0.60% -0.65% and in Europe 0.25% -0.35%.
About the country in one year From now on with upgrades of credit rating agencies that receive investment class, the 10-year bond rate will be below the 2% level. In addition, a new QE, a potential resident of Mario Draghi, will allow Greek bonds to be eligible by the ECB and in that case, the liquidity conditions in the banking system will improve dramatically.
After almost ten years of financial exclusion from private capital, Greece is now returning to investment charters. When we have kneeled from the crisis, international markets have reached historical levels and interest rates have become flat. It is characteristic that analysts estimate that the total market today is worth 12 trillion in negative returns, ie. below zero. dollar! For investment professionals and capitalists, Greece, where the crisis dried out about 25% of GDP, seems to be a good opportunity.
Always assuming that election results will guarantee governance and investment-friendly policies, data from the Greek economy and the market will be transformed. In the question of what to expect if the opinion polls are confirmed and we have an ND government, the first simple answer is more or less what has been said publicly. It will be attempted to remove obstacles as soon as possible to finally invest in Elliniko and to re-open the investment in Skouries of Halkidiki. In addition, the privatization program will be accelerated and through the competitive bidding process, SYRIZA's obligations will be met. Sales of HELPE, DEPA, EGNATIA tolls, etc. Immediate management will also require PPC cases, as the company is financially marginal. Kyriakos Mitsotakis is obliged to make quick decisions and seems to be the first to handle.
According to information, international investment banks have encouraged the development of various economic scenarios and investment proposals for three areas where it appears that the new economic policy will be emphasized. These are energy, state properties and banks. State-owned properties, which in most cases are still untapped and are now on the hypermarket for 99 years to the lender after the "proud" 2015 negotiations, will be transformed into a lever. To help attract investment, stimulate construction and fill public funds.
It is important to block the banks from red loans in order to free and finance economic activities and thus growth. In terms of energy, the industry is thus investing heavily in investment, and as mentioned, it must be given to PPC, which coincides with SYRIZA's disastrous policies.
The main forces that play the leading role in business upgrades are two. The first is the various investment funds, and therefore London is today the central stage where several Greek offers take place. And the reason is that the agreements "over suspicions" for the Greek market. According to information, two funds have recently contacted the investment funds Anchorage and Golden Tree, which is WIND's main shareholder, and has requested a period of exclusive negotiation to buy the country's third largest telecommunications company. Anchoring and Golden Tree did not agree, mainly because they believe that open bidding will give higher bids, but have not yet decided to start such a process.
Greek deals in London are not just about well-known Greek companies but also many unknown "diamonds" in the market. For example, today a London-based process runs from SouthBridge Europe Mezzanine for private equity to sell the Thessaloniki-based food company Ariva. Behind the private equity fund managed by 65 million are three Greeks, Evi Andrianou, Giorgos Mavridis and Miltos Kornaros, all the old employees of Eurobank / Telesis. Founded in 2015, SouthBridge has invested in many medium-sized Greek companies such as Kiosky's, HotelBrain, Skroutz A.E. etc.
ARIVIA is a company founded by ELGEKA by Alexandros Katsiotis. It was sold to SouthBridge, with Mr Katsiotis and his associates holding a minority stake. It produces vegan cheeses and has a large share in supermarkets in the US and UK. When it was sold – about three years ago – it had an EBITDA of EUR 12-15 million. Today it has reached 25 million EBITDA, which means that it can be sold for how much of the 200 million. Today, the interested investors explain their interest in the almost unknown on the domestic market ARIVIA
Investors in London are also very interested in large Greek properties. Demand for hotels has been somewhat broken because prices have risen. The investment interest has shifted mainly to new office buildings, many squares, with trusted tenants.
The other powerful force driving business upgrades is the combination of a few more Greek liquid corporate groups and sales of highly indebted banks by banks. For example, in the Vardinoyannis Group, as the new generation leads, new investment guidelines are being developed, as demonstrated by the IBG Bank and the ALPHA market. The information wants the group to be interested in expanding infrastructure concessions, and its leadership has reportedly not been left unhindered by the privatization of DEPA. At the same time, rumors were released on the market and the group's interest in the form of ThPA
Sales of "Dynan"
In the private health sector, where CVC, Oaktree and Farallon changed in a few months Postmortem operation is after the election, as soon as Piraeus Bank launches "Henry Dunnan" in an international competition. At the same time, the banks have accepted and studied an offer from the ANTENNA Group and Blackstone for the sale of Forthnet with 80% release on loans. At the same time, the creditors are waiting on July 4, the day of the Halyvourgiki general meeting, to begin with the new administration's discussions on the sale of the Aspropyrgos facilities. The symbol of industrial development in Greece in the 60s, under the debt burden of 440 million, is likely to be divested to logistics facilities, with a large trump card gate.
Although the management of MIG explains that it does not intend to sell at the end of the year, Piraeus Bank examines all scenarios for the Attica Group's future, with the market whispering to a new sales process that will begin in July. The Agonies are rising for Notos Com's future, with the banks looking for a new investor and the Fais Group silent after the first investigation interest.
The sale of Porto Carras Hotel will continue in the coming months as the Stengou family seems to have made their decisions. On Thursday – besides the unexpected – the General Assembly will be held to recall the old administration of Euromedica and start the company's new track. Guidance for climate change is for deals that only six months ago ended with doubtful or zero interest, there is now competition. A typical example is Ethniki Insurance, whose sales are now almost considered by NBG. The reason is that there were new players who have nothing to do with NN or Fairfax, whose name was released on the market.
The country after a large test shows that it has reached the point where it can restart and cure – at least to the extent possible – the wound of the crisis year.