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German companies expect restrictions on coronavirus to last until April

People in protective clothing are pictured checking the body temperature of people crossing the German-Polish border on March 18, 2020 in Goerlitz, Germany.

Florian Gaertner | Photothek | Getty Images

German companies expect coronavirus restrictions in public life to continue for another 8.5 months on average, according to the closely followed Ifo Institute, as the growing number of coronavirus infections in Germany raises questions.


7;s latest business survey in July asked various sectors how long they expect public sector restrictions to last, with service providers expecting restrictions of 8.9 months, trading companies expecting 8.6 months, construction 8.2 months and manufacturing 7.8 months.

“Leisure companies are particularly afraid of a longer period of restrictions: 13.0 months,” Ifo said when the research was published on Monday, while those in the arts and restaurants and restaurants expect restrictive measures for 11 months.

The study comes as European companies appear to be recovering from the coronavirus pandemic amid concerns over a growing number of infections in a number of countries in the region, including Germany.

Virus reproduction rate (defined as the average number of people infected by an infected person) rose in Germany to 1.16 on Friday, the highest level in ten days. Germany estimates its R-rate using a four-day moving average and says that the value reflects the infection situation about one to two weeks ago.

The Robert Koch Institute (RKI), Germany’s public health body, said it saw many smaller cases of outbreaks across the country in different administrative districts and in different environments, such as major family events, leisure activities, work environments, but also in the community and health facilities. In addition, Covid-19 cases are increasingly being identified among people returning from travel abroad, RKI said on Friday.

It warned that the increase in the number of reported Covid-19 cases in recent weeks was “very worrying.” Another 5,271 new cases were reported in the last seven days, RKI said on Sunday.

“The number of new cases reported daily has increased since calendar week 30. This development is very important and will continue to be monitored very closely by RKI. A further deterioration of the situation must be avoided,” RKI stated.

This “will only succeed if the whole population continues to be committed to reducing transmission, for example by consistently following the rules of physical distance and hygiene – even in outdoor environments – by ventilating indoor areas and, if specified, wearing a community or face mask. correctly, “it added.

Economists at Deutsche Bank said on Monday that the rise in the Covid-19 infection rate in Germany and elsewhere “is a problem, although not yet worrying.”

“For seasonal reasons, we expect higher prices until the spring of 2021. We anticipate that a vaccine will be widely available by mid-2021, creating confidence in the latter part of that year,” said economists led by Stefan Schneider in a note. .

Deutsche Bank’s economists now expect German GDP (gross domestic product) to decline by 6.4% in 2020 (compared with -9% forecast in early May) followed by an increase of 4% in 2021. Nevertheless, production levels before Covid will not to be reached before mid-2022, they predicted and added that the margin of error is high.

“The current exceptional volatility in monthly data and the continued development of the global pandemic mean that margins of error remain exceptionally high.”

To date, Germany has recorded 217,288 coronavirus infections and 9,202 deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University, a much lower number of deaths than many of its European counterparts.

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