Week 10 had it all, with very close games and some wild riots. We got the big games from some top receivers who have missed time like Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams, who both put the high season on the air yard. As for the backs, Derrick Henry continued with his personal crusade against me and everything I believe in and David Johnson seems to have come in the bench – but at least Ronald Jones got me to lift myself after being knocked on. Let's jump into everything that Week 10 had to offer.
Data is usually courtesy of Pro Football Reference, RotoViz, RotoGrinders Premium usage app, airyards.com or PFF. Feel free to always hit me up on Twitter @YardsPerGretch with questions about everything I covered or to ask my thoughts on something I glossed over. These are some of my favorite feedbacks, because sometimes it's something I've missed.
Here are some important statistical acronyms to know for stealing signals:
Green Zone ̵
HVT – : for running backs, all receptions and all touches within the 10 yard line.
TRAP – : for backs, the percentage of all touches that are not of high value. created by Josh Hermsmeyer, it balances the share of goals and the share of aviation. Because a player's WOPR is part of his team's total opportunity, it is important to consider team volume as an additional context.
RACR – Receiver's air conversion rate: also created by Hermsmeyer, RACR is calculated as total receiving yards divided by total air colors. Similar to yards per reception or yards per target, but per air yard instead.
Raiders 26 – Chargers 24
- Snapnotes: Jalen Richard: 38% (+ 10% against season average), Melvin Gordon: 62% (-1% vs. high season week 9), Austin Ekeler: 45% (+ 11% vs. Week 9) season low), Andre Patton: 81% (third straight game over 80%)
- Key status: Chargers – 68 rushes, 59 passes in two games since offensive coordinator change
Thursday Night Football ended like so many Chargers- game, with Philip Rivers trying to mount a late comeback in a two-point game. He seemed a little more aggressive than necessary with one minute left and three timeouts, sending multiple passes to double coverage downfield rather than trying to cut a unit to get into the field's goal range, and the Chargers came up short and got no turns on eight straight incompletions, one of which was repealed by a defensive holding that gave Los Angeles a second set of downs.
Before the pointless late-game attempt, there were not many signals to steal in this one. The game script was fairly neutral throughout, allowing Oakland to present Josh Jacobs, whose 16-71-1 line could have been a little higher had the Chargers not won possession time and run 11 more games than the Raiders. Jacobs was also targeted five times, one season high, and matched his season high with three catches.
But Derek Carr threw a solid crowd to all three backs. Jalen Richard was on the rush late to catch all four goals he saw, while DeAndre Washington also chipped in two catches. That duo had usually split backup reps in the middle early, but Richard has been the most important No. 2 in recent weeks, and he drove 17 routes to Jacobs & # 39; 10, with Washington also running five. That's not a good route share for Jacobs when it comes to maintaining the goal increase, which seemed to be more related to the matchup and Carr's willingness to look down to the back 11 times in total.
Last week we talked about Tyrell Williams and Darren Waller and their share of goals, noting "Williams and Waller clearly have more to compete with than they did at the beginning of the year." Each caught three of five goals while Hunter Renfrow also caught four of five goals. These three and Jacobs saw a four-way lead for the goal line, while Richard had his four and Zay Jones was targeted three times in what was a balanced pass attack. I expect a little more of Waller and Williams in the future, but that trend seems to be relatively early in the season.
Los Angeles could control possession early by Melvin Gordon, at least after Rivers looked shaky on the first runs. The rivers were wound up with three interceptions, one of which came on the last drive, but had two more recalled during a first half which also included pickings on the team's first two units, the latter returning for a point. After that start, the Chargers went hard, following the trend they set last week after Ken Whisenhun's firing as offensive coordinator.
Gordon rushed 22 times in 108 yards and a 3-yard score, while the Chargers worked in Austin Ekeler more than last week without sacrificing Gordon snaps. Both backs started, and Ekeler got a 23-yard pass on the first play of the game, so it seemed a conscious choice from the Chargers to integrate him more. Ekeler ran 20 routes after a season-low 10 last week, and while his overall touchdown is clearly limited relative to the earlier part of the season, he still has his pass-play potential and the Chargers will utilize both backs in the green zone, as evidenced by of Ekeler's late 6-yard touchdown reception. He also had a green zone carry just before that touchdown reception and is still a reasonable RB2 in PPR leagues behind Gordon.
Keenan Allen (11-8-68) and Hunter Henry (7-4-30-1) dominated the receiver volume in a game where Rivers threw just 207 yards, his second-lowest passenger production of the season. Andre Patton continued his playing time demanding over wide receiver position # 3 and finally saw a certain volume to follow when he was directed four times for 82 aviation.
Patton did not catch anything and has not been effective overall, but these seem to explain Mike Williams' lack of volume, as Williams has been a consistent alternative in the field. Williams saw only three goals and while his 81 aerial colors were solid and his 55 receiving yards on two catches are nothing, he has been hit hardest since Henry and Gordon's return. Henry has directly influenced his goal share, while Gordon has helped shift the focus of the crime.
- Signal: Raiders – much more balanced passing game than in September; Mike Williams – Biggest Loser from Increased Driving Focus and Henry's Return
- Noise: Josh Jacobs – Season's High Five Goals (ran only 10 routes, Richard and Washington combined for 22 routes and six goals)
Buccaneers 30 – Cardinals 27
- Snapnotes: Ronald Jones: 47% (-8 vs. high season week 9), Peyton Barber: 26% (+14 vs. week 9), Dare Ogunbowale: 26% (-6 vs. season average) , OJ Howard: 99% (first game since Week 6), Kenyan Drake: 64% (-20 vs. Week 9 Cardinal debut), David Johnson: 43% (-21 vs. Season average)
- Key State: Ronald Jones – 24 routes (44% of dropbacks), 8 goals
Tampa Bay and Arizona played one of several entertaining folds 10 games, and how the traded points meant lots of pace and passing. The Bucs finally made the final victory in a game where they ran a season-high 78 appearances. Arizona's 65 gigs were about their own average, but both teams went over 400 total yards in what was the third-best offensive production of the season for each.
Both Ronald Jones and O.J. Howard had solid matches for Tampa, every setting of the season's highlights in routes is run and also the percentage of dropbacks they ran routes. There was still concern for everyone.
Jones only played a 47% snap percentage, and he seems to especially like that he often left the game. He also lost snaps after a crucial quarter-fumble, as he did not touch the ball on the team's lone drive after that, a drive that ended in a 1-yard Peyton Barber touchdown.
Jones scored early, and his 8-8-77 receiving line was fantastic, but it was also likely plus variance given that he ran 24 routes in total (44% of dropbacks). It is a solid reception use, but does not make this type of production seem sustainable.
You might expect me to go nuts given that Jones had nine touches of high value, but the Bucs as a team had a total of 15, a season overrun that was affected by the opponent and the game flow. They had previously peaked at 10 behind Week 4. It was definitely a promising performance for Jones, don't get me wrong – he only had 15 high-quality touches all season into Week 10, so his improved use was definitely a positive one – But the late fumble and A matchup with a tough Holy Run defense next week will at least consider other options where I can. I am still optimistic overall, despite the lack of rushing success in this.
Howard's season-crossing route and route share led to a season-high seven goals, and his 62 air yards were the second most he has seen this year. He looked good when he was involved, and was still mostly quiet, with three of his four catches at 41 meters and his points all coming on the final run of the first half. The talent is still evident there, and he recorded this game with only 18 goals all season so the seven he saw were very remarkable, and I look at it more than the sequencing of when his production came. But I wouldn't fault you because you saw the plus matchup and big stretches where he didn't seem to be a big option in the offense as proof that his performance in this won't transfer. He has average routes of about 65% of dropbacks in active games, after all, so it's not like his 78% route share was a massive peak.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin each had games down to their high standards, but their roles are very safe. Each had over 100 air yards and got there in different ways given their different roles. Evans had six goals for 123 aerial colors (20.5 aDOT) while Godwin had 12 for 103 (8.6 aDOT) including at least a couple of quick hits on the line of scrutiny which is always nice to see.
Breshad Perriman is well ahead of Scotty Miller when it comes to routes in WR # 3, but Miller actually saw more air yards. I have noted that they are mostly hollow air colors, but it is still worth tracing the deep threat role here for deeper leagues given that they combined for 108 air colors on seven targets.
Christian Kirk's latest volume reached a peak when he set a season-high of 199 goals in 10 goals – the second most yardage for any player in Week 10 – and his 6-138-3 was huge for Fantasy executives. He has been running more routes outside the last few weeks, which paid off in week 10 after a dud in week 9.
Things spread behind him. Larry Fitzgerald went 8-8-71 at his usually much lower aDOT (6.8), his first two-digit PPR score since Week 6. No other wide receiver ran routes on more than 51% of dropbacks. Andy Isabella went 3-3-78 but saw only 33 aviation on a seasonally high 38% route share, while Pharoh Cooper (five goals, 148 aviation, 32% routes) and KeeSean Johnson (four goals, 59 aviation, 51% routes) saw more volume.
David Johnson seemed to be benched, something that Kliff Kingsbury confirmed was a coach's decision after the game:
Both Johnson and Kenyan Drake started each other in a two-back set, and Drake got the first two running touches of the game for the Cardinals before Johnson moved the ball in the fourth game of the first unit. Drake knocked him out significantly throughout the game, and while Johnson lost a costly fumble late in the third, it was only his sixth touch at that point; his use was already very thin.
One area he stayed involved in was the passing game, as he ran routes on 38% of dropbacks compared to 49% for Drake despite Johnson not playing the entire quarter. It seems like the plan was that Johnson would be more of a pass option, but he didn't find the right goal while Drake caught six of seven, but for just 6 yards total.
With Chase Edmonds coming back soon, the return situation will only get more complicated. Currently, Johnson does not look like he can be trusted in the lineups, and Drake must be considered the best RB option in Arizona. But Johnson's path to regaining some value – especially in PPR leagues – is pretty clear, and that would be if he ended up in a hybrid role where he is out on routes while Drake or Edmonds act as more traditional backs.
A quick note about Kyler Murray having one of his better games this season – early in the third quarter, on a fourth and 1 from Tampa 23, he threw a perfect ball on a well-designed game where tight end Maxx Williams was wide open for what could have been a walk-in touchdown, but Williams lost the ball in the sun. Although it would have really affected the game from that point if they got points there instead of turning the ball over, Murray's line probably could have been a little bigger.
- Signal: O.J. Howard – season high in goals, routes, but not a massive increase in usage compared to what had not worked before; Ronald Jones – more involved in passing the game, but also lost snaps late after fumbling; David Johnson – had limited involvement even before he was substituted for groping
- Noise: Kenyan Drake / Ronald Jones – six and eight receptions (both had solid reception roles but both shared routes with other backs, ran routes on fewer than 50% of dropbacks, so these reception numbers were a bit inflated)
Titans 35 – Chiefs 32
The Titans won a thriller over the Chiefs in a game where they were, they only ran 49 plays and got a 159-yard gain, which is quite remarkable.
Such a result usually requires winning the turnover match, but both teams turned the ball only once. Tennessee got a defensive touchdown, which always helps, when they returned a Damien Williams second quarter fumble for a point.
Williams had a huge opportunity with LeSean McCoy declared a surprise inactive in a move that is described as a predetermined residual game for McCoy. Williams' fumble was expensive, but the Chiefs continued to rely on him as the lead back, and he ended up playing another big snap share. He ran routes on 53% of dropbacks and took five passes, with a sixth catch being recalled with a penalty. He also rushed 19 times in 77 laps, so that was a positive result overall for Williams value.
Kansas City ran just one green zone game all day, a 3-yard touchdown reception for Travis Kelce on a spade pass on the first drive, as they had a couple of longer points. That meant no green zone scratches for the backs, although Williams had a 10-yard carry on the previous game to get down to 3 and was on the pitch for Kelce touchdown.
It considered everything, it was a positive result for William's value by retaining such a large share of the work. The rest explanation for McCoy also rings a little hollow considering that McCoy only played six snaps in Week 9. If Williams retains this kind of role in the backfield, he is a starting weekly and his Week 10 exit would be on the lower end of the his weekly results.
Tyreek Hill led all players in Week 10 with 237 aerial colors on a 19 goal, shaking off a brief injury to send a huge 11-157-1 line. Kelce got a second point that was recalled by offensive pass interference, but still managed a 7-7-75-1 line. Sammy Watkins saw nine goals but only 77 aerial colors, turned in a 5-39 line, as the Chiefs mainly maintained their narrow goal tree from Week 9, though Patrick Mahomes was asked to throw 50 times. Demarcus Robinson saw five looks as the only other boss with more than one goal, and while Mecole Hardman produced another long touchdown with a 63-yard score early in the fourth, he only played 18 snaps in a rotating role and saw only one goal  In addition to a couple of pockets with passing production, Derrick Henry was the Titan's offense. Ryan Tannehill hit Calif Raymond for a 52-yard pass at the start of the second, then found No. 2 tight end Anthony Firkser for a 9-yard score three games later, and he later orchestrated a quick game-winning drive that included an 18 – courtyards, a 20-yard pass to Firkser and a 23-yard touchdown strike to Adam Humphries. But those were the few passing highlights as he completed 13 of just 19 passes all day on 181 yards, which explains the down play for Jonnu Smith and A.J. Brown.
Henry rushed 23 times in 188 yards, breaking off his first long touchdown season (he has long touchdowns in the passing game), which is of course his signature and later adds a 1-yard touchdown run for his second score . He had only three high quality touches including two receptions of three meters, but matchup and script worked very well in his favor.
What Henry is doing considering his specific touch mix is incredible, but a 247 pound back that can run a 4.54 is also incredible, so I'm probably just wrong in expecting regression. It's always a tight rope to go as an analyst between admitting misses and giving forward-looking advice, so my position is: a) I'm wrong; b) If you care if I personally adapt, I continue to bleach Henry, but see a). Do whatever you want.
- Signal: Damien Williams – big snap share, didn't get a bench for a fumble; Chiefs – very tight target tree even given increased volume
- Noise: Ryan Tannehill – 19 pass attempts (previous season low in three starts – 29)
Browns 19 – Bills 16
The Browns pulled out a late victory over the Bills, and the back was a big part of the story.
Nick Chubb rushed 20 times for 116 yards and looked dominant on the ground against a Bills run defense who has had his problems. Meanwhile, Kareem Hunt debuted and ran routes on 56% of dropbacks, seeing nine goals but rushing just four times. The two slopes often played together and Chubb ran routes on 61% of dropbacks, a significant increase in his role over the past two weeks. Chubb still saw four goals and took two passes, and while he did not score, he picked up seven green zones as Brown's card offense continued to look miserable.
In other words, how Hunt was incorporated was a very positive result for Chubb's value, who did not lose much work in the backfield and was still involved in the passing game. Per PFF, Hunt stood in track or out on 14 of his 38 snaps, which helps explain how he saw nine goals. And Hunt's presence also had a positive impact on Chubb's production.
I'm not sure we will see this type of use from these two every week, but it would be very meaningful. If we do, both will be very viable Fantasy options.
Jarvis Landry had a great day while Odell Beckham handled Three & Davious White all game, with Landry going 10-9-97-1. Beckham had a season-high 168 goals in 12 goals but posted an inefficient line 5-57, which might be to be expected as White is a top-level corner. Beckham's 0.99 WOPR was the highest score for any player in Week 10.
Outside of Beckham, Landry and the two backs, the rest of the Browns combined for just three goals, with Rashard Higgins capturing the game-winner on his lone goal.
Devin Singletary maintained his big snap share for Buffalo, but Frank Gore got the lone goal line and got filled (again). Josh Allen rushed after two touchdowns and pushed him to six this season, but his rushing yardage per game is primarily down from 20 yards from 2018 to 30.6 per game.
Allen's 266 yards in this represented a career high, which should not be taken positively given that he threw 41 times. With the risk of sounding like a hater (I'm definitely one, to be fair), I will note that he has produced two total touchdowns in five straight games, and he tends to get there one way or another, but I think still that he is a beautiful meh Fantasy alternative with a limited ceiling.
Singletary then did not find the end zone, and while he was directed seven times, he caught only three balls at 8 meters. Allen rushed six times and Gore got five cars, which meant only eight for Singletary a week after he turned 20. Obviously, his rushing upside can be limited, but he has caught at least three balls in each of the four games there he played at least 50% of the snaps.
Stop me if you've heard this before: John Brown's 11 goals and 155 avenues easily led the Bills, but his efficiency left little to be desired since Allen had some accuracy issues, so he wound up at 5-77. Cole Beasley and Dawson Knox both saw six goals and caught four balls, but it's difficult to trust secondary options in this fitting game.
- Signal: Nick Chubb – still had a very valuable role even with Hunt involved; Kareem Hunt – much more of a PPR option and up outside a reasonable amount in two-back sets
- Noise: Devin Singletary – 8 receiving yards on seven goals; Odell Beckham – 57 receiving yards in 168 air colors (tough matchup, strong 0.99 WOPR)
Ravens 49 – Bengals 13
- Snap Notes: Ravens: nothing actionable as a starter left the game very early, Joe Mixon: 76% (+12 vs. previous high season), Giovani Bernard: 24% (low season, left with injury), Alex Erickson : 51% (lowest since week 5), Stanley Morgan: 51% (+33 vs. previous high season)
- Key status: Lamar Jackson – 4 total touchdowns in three-quarter action (15/17 passes) for 223 and 3, rushing 7-65-1)
The Ravens took it to the Bengals in Ryan Finley's first career start, with Lamar Jackson crushing the Bengals on the ground for the second time this season. Other than a short drive that ended the half, Baltimore scored on their other five possessions to start the game, and because of their own offensive efficiency and two defensive points, they ran just 46 total appearances, 11 of which came in the fourth quarter after Jackson was already ready for the day.
Jackson rushed seven times for 65 yards and one point on the dirty spin you have probably seen by now. He also threw three touchdowns despite attempting just 17 passes, finishing 15 for 223 yards.
Despite the limited pass volume, Mark Andrews had a tremendous back-to-back performance after a couple of down plays and caught six of eight goals for 53 and two points. Marquise Brown caught all four balls he saw at 80 yards and one point. Nick Boyle also had another good game, and he caught all four goals he saw at 78 yards, and he has some deep league appeal as a tighter tight end considering how the corporations like to use multiple tight ends and Jackson likes to see out. Andrews ran routes at 71% of dropbacks but Boyle was still at 63%, a season high for him, and Hayden Hurst also came in a season high of 58%.
Mark Ingram was hardly needed, rushing nine times for 34 and one point, and none of his backs were directed because Baltimore had no problems getting the ball down the field. You do not often see a back cover printed because his team is too much, but it happened here.
Finley blinked a little, but looked mostly excessive in his first start. He threw a poor pick-six and averaged just 5.6 yards per attempt, but will have an easier matchup next week in Oakland.
Joe Mixon received a huge berry despite the massive negative script, which was a pretty big note. While receiving only three high-quality touches – two catches and one green zone look – Mixon had previously failed to reach 20 rushes in a game this season and had been over 15 just twice.
Cincinnati has basically just wrapped it up – driving heavy while trailing Washington since Bill Callahan took over – and that's good news for Mixon's value because even low-value touch is better than he's got, and 30 carries is 30 berries. Part of Mixon's role was due to Giovani Bernard's injury, as Mixon easily played a seasonally high 76% snap percentage, so we need to check if Bernard's status is progressing. But it's possible that the Bengals just let Mixon eat the rest of the way, which would get him back on the Fantasy radar.
Tyler Boyd led Cincinnati in goal with an 8-6-62 line, and I could see an argument for using him next week against Oakland, but this is mostly a passing game to avoid right now. Auden Tate went 6-3-36 while Alex Erickson gave up a bunch of routes to Stanley Morgan as the Bengals started a rotation in the third receiving role. I've been harping on Cincinnati's knitting with three main receivers each week so it's something to note if you've taken Erickson into consideration in some deeper leagues.
- Signal: Joe Mixon – 30 carries (first time over 20 this year)
- Noise: Ravens – game volume (defensive touchdowns, their own efficiency limited the hand for everyone)
Jets 34 – Giants 27
- Snap Notes: Chris Herndon: 28% (season debut, injured), Darius Slayton: 93% (at least 84% in five straight games)
- Key status: Darius Slayton – 0.92 WOPR (third at most in Week 10)
The Jets pulled one out over the Giants in a battle for the two young quarterbacks in the Big Apple.
Sam Darnold was better this week, if not perfect, throwing for 230 yards on 30 attempts, a 7.7 YPA which was his highest since Week 6. The Jets ran 29 times against the 30 passes despite their backs averaging less than 2 feet per carry (still better than the Giants managed!).
Le & # 39; Veon Bell took four passes and converted one of two green zones. His six high touches were solid, and he wound up with a total of 68 turns and points despite the poor rushing efficiency, but his workload continues to be theoretically more valuable than in reality because the Jets offense has just been so bad. Even his touchdown, which came from the 1-yard line, took a defensive pass interference in the end zone to set up.
Darnold did not shoot the ball down the field, which meant an easy day for Robby Anderson. It was a problem sometimes last season and seemed to reappear, as Darnold mostly chooses to throw. That meant a 9-6-84 day for Demaryius Thomas on a 5.6 aDOT and a 6-5-81-1 for Jamison Crowder on a 10.0 aDOT, which was not exactly easy for Crowder but he totaled only 60 air colors overall so it's not like he saw a bunch of downfield looks either.
And then the Jets lost Chris Herndon to a cracked rib in his long-awaited return from a hamstring injury, which was just a mute. Ryan Griffin will continue to be the leading tight end.
Jones threw for 308 yards and four touchdowns despite a depleted receiving corps, which was locked on Darius Slayton early and Golden Tate later, but he also took six sacks and groped three times, including a strip sack Jamal Adams returned to the house. Pocket awareness continues to be a problem for Jones, who handles some offensive line problems, but when he had time he looked good to throw the ball.
Slayton published a massive 14-10-121-2 line of 142 air colors, good for a very strong 0.92 WOPR. Tate also got two points, going 8-4-95-2, and while breaking a wide receiver screen for a 61-yard score, he also saw 70 aviation on the day. In other words, while he was unsustainably efficient in terms of laps after the catch, he was also ineffective at the downfield he received, which does not completely wash out but is somewhat close to it.
But the Giants couldn't run the ball at all. Saquon Barkley got a yard of 13 cars, while catching all five goals he saw at 30 yards. He is still electric and will probably break big games the rest of the way, but we have a pretty big test now that says he needs the big players to have RB1 value, and it's not perfect. For most elite riders, the big performances make their appearances – see Christian McCaffrey's 40-point game – but they can rely on an even production level without them. Saquon does not have the solid double-digit floor right now, although strong reception is most weeks.
Rhett Ellison caught all three goals he saw with Evan Engram, but depth TE Kaden Smith actually ran more routes, 23 to 15, so Ellison is not a guy I would stream if Engram misses for a long time.
- Signal: Saquon Barkley – beroende av stora pjäser, har fortfarande ett solid mottagningsgolv; Darius Slayton – massivt engagemang
- Buller: Saquon Barkley / Le'Veon Bell – alla sub-2.0 YPC på tvåsiffriga bär är lite bullriga
Falcons 26 – Saints 9
I den kanske den största chocken på en vild dag, kvävde Atlanta försvar av de heliga förseningarna, och kom till Drew Brees för sex säckar efter att Saints quarterbacks hade sparkats bara 12 gånger i säsongens första åtta matcher och Falcons hade genererat bara sju över deras första åtta spelen. Gå figur.
Falcons ledde hela och följde därmed rusa en säsongs hög 34 gånger, långt utöver deras tidigare högsta av 25. Eftersom Ito Smith gick på IR förra veckan och Devonta Freeman lämnade en fotskada, Brian Hill fick 20 av dessa bilar för 61 meter. Hill är en tredjeårs proff som var en arbetshäst på Wyoming (tillsammans med Josh Allen) men har inte gjort mycket på NFL-nivå. Han är ingen plusidrottare och har bara sex karriärfångster, men det betyder inte nödvändigtvis att han är oförmögen. Falconerna som ett lag har kämpat för att köra bollen, men han verkar troligtvis få den största delen av snaps om Freeman missar tid. Det finns alltid potential i dessa situationer, men vi kanske också tittar på en situation som liknar Kalen Ballage i Miami, eftersom Freeman själv inte var konsekvent produktiv i detta brott. av sina två mål, men han körde bara nio rutter när nr 3 tillbaka Kenjon Barner arbetade i med åtta egna rutter. Som jämförelse gick Freeman 12 i första halvlek.
Ryan's other touchdown went to Austin Hooper, who went 5-4-17-1 but also suffered an injury to his knee that will require an MRI and is expected to cost him some time. Julio Jones led the pass-catchers with nine targets and 118 air yards, and while he caught just three for 78, his volume should be secure the rest of the way given the way the rest of the offense has deteriorated.
Prior to Week 10, the Falcons had been one of the more pass-happy teams in the league, and the 35 passes Ryan threw were his second fewest of the season. We should also expect more volume and production from Calvin Ridley going forward, though he posted another disappointing 5-3-28 line with 80 air yards. Russell Gage is another name to monitor as he played his second straight full set of snaps since the Mohamed Sanu trade, catching four of five targets for 23 yards.
Several of the sacks Brees took appeared to be coverage sacks, and there's something the Falcons were doing in the secondary that made him less decisive than usual. Of course that didn't impact Michael Thomas, and for most of the game the star receiver was all the Saints had going for them. Thomas finished with his usual elite combination of efficiency and volume, catching 13-of-14 balls for 152 yards.
Alvin Kamara finished with eight catches on 10 targets for 50 receiving yards, but most of that came later, with four of those catches being underneath throws in a final, futile drive over the final two minutes with the game decided. Kamara's first catch didn't come until there were 28 seconds left in the first half, and given he only rushed four times for 24 yards as the Saints abandoned the run, his final line could have frankly been worse.
That's not to say there's major concern there — weird games happen and Kamara did finish alright in PPR leagues, which just goes to show that he's used in all scripts. But I'm also not buying too much into his huge snap share after comments last week that the team intended to work in Latavius Murray more than they had early in the season, because the 46/11 pass/run ratio meant Kamara playing a lot of snaps in the second half. We'll still need to see how the Saints play in a plus script; Murray rushed five times to Kamara's four in this one.
Jared Cook was the only other Saint involved, catching six of 10 targets for 74 yards in his return from injury. That's three straight solid games for him dating back to when Teddy Bridgewater was under center, and he's definitely back on the map at a thin position.
- Signal: Falcons — suddenly extremely thin, likely to feature Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley
- Noise: Saints — 46/11 pass/run ratio; Falcons — 34 rush attempts
Bears 20 – Lions 13
- Snap Notes: David Montgomery: 60% (lowest since Week 7), Tarik Cohen: 53% (most since Week 7), J.D. McKissic: 70% (+32 vs. previous season high), Ty Johnson: 14% (left with concussion)
- Key Stat: David Montgomery — 11 routes run for second straight week (tied for second fewest this season)
The Bears, at home, outlasted a Lions team led by Jeff Driskel, though they certainly didn't put them away as Detroit had two drives late to try to force overtime. That's perhaps as good of an encapsulation of the Bears' season as any of their losses.
Mitchell Trubisky's stats were fine, as he completed 16 of 23 passes for 173 yards and three scores, but he did miss some throws as per usual and took five sacks. Chicago also took the game out of his hands a bit, content to run clock and rely on their defense. By the final whistle, the Lions had run 75 plays to the Bears' 52, out-gaining them 357 to 226. Seven of the Bears' 12 drives were three-and-outs, including four of their final five possessions when they had a lead.
Combined with what we knew coming in, that tells us quite a bit about where this offense is at right now. There's just not much upside for big production given they can look completely flat and will also play conservatively if they get a lead.
David Montgomery rushed 17 times for 60 yards, but didn't have a single high-value touch. He ran just 11 routes for the second straight week, tied for his second fewest of the season. Tarik Cohen ran 16 and was targeted four times, catching all four for 23 yards and a score. Allen Robinson predictably dominated pass volume with nine targets and 100 air yards, but he's limited by the offense and it's hard to see a lot more upside than his 6-86 without touchdowns (which should come, eventually). It was Taylor Gabriel and Ben Braunecker with the other two scores, with Gabriel having one of his boom volume games, seeing six targets for 92 air yards, but catching just four passes for 39 yards.
I said last week I could only see starting Montgomery or Robinson from this offense, but Montgomery getting zero high-value touches and Robinson set to likely draw Jalen Ramsey all game next week in Los Angeles has me wanting to start no Bears next week.
Detroit was quarterbacked by Jeff Driskel after Matthew Stafford was surprisingly not cleared to play with broken bones in his back. Driskel, if you're unfamiliar, is a mobile quarterback who isn't afraid to let it fly:
He's not a particularly accurate passer, but his willingness to chuck it is helpful for Fantasy, and he connected on one deep ball to Kenny Golladay that helped the Lions' No. 1 to a decent day. Golladay totaled nine targets and 119 air yards but hauled in just two for 10 outside that 47-yard score (so 3-57-1 overall). Marvin Jones found more success with 6-5-77 on 94 air yards, while Danny Amendola, T.J. Hockenson and J.D. McKissic each had between six and eight targets (but no more than 50 receiving yards) as the other main cogs in the passing game.
McKissic played big snaps because Ty Johnson left in the first half with a concussion. The Lions likely wanted to run a bit against a Bears front that has been gashed in recent weeks, but McKissic is a former wide receiver in college and Paul Perkins wasn't really up to the task, so they turned to Driskel to throw 46 passes and scramble another five times. It wasn't pretty, but at least it was more entertaining than the Bears' offense.
- Signal: Bears — conservative with a lead
- Noise: Lions — backyard football game for them, not reflective of much; J.D. McKissic — huge snap share because Ty Johnson got concussed (they will likely have someone else playing early downs if Johnson isn't ready by next week)
Dolphins 16 – Colts 12
- Snap Notes: Kalen Ballage: 82% (+41 vs. previous season high), Patrick Laird: 12% (first offensive snaps), Myles Gaskin: 8% (season debut), Allen Hurns: 89% (+20 vs. previous season high), Albert Wilson: 53% (+14 vs. previous season high), Marcus Johnson: 80% (season debut), Eric Ebron: 61% (+9 vs. previous season high), Jack Doyle: 60% (-8 vs. previous season low), Marlon Mack: 46% (lowest since Week 4), Nyheim Hines: 43% (-2 vs. season high)
- Key Stat: Kalen Ballage — 24 touches, 7 high-value touches
In(which was mostly good, I swear!), I picked Marlon Mack and wrote "If Marlon Mack doesn't run for 100 yards this week, I'll be legitimately surprised." I've talked all year about him being a TRAP back, but this looked like a great spot for one his 25-plus carry games. I also thought he'd mix in a few receptions, because coming into the game all 11 of Mack's receptions had come in their five wins, while he hadn't caught a pass in any of their three losses.
Well, the Colts didn't run an offensive snap with the lead against the Dolphins, so color me surprised.
Mack played a low snap share due to script, and while he did notch 19 rush attempts in a mostly close game and rack up 74 yards (plus his first catch in a loss for 8 more yards), the Colts used their "obvious pass situation back" Nyheim Hines far more than usual. Hines caught four of seven targets and also rushed three times, while the backup early-down backs Jordan Wilkins and Jonathan Williams were also a little more involved than usual, combining for five more carries.
Mack has become one of the most game-script dependent backs in the league, which isn't great given the state of the Colts' quarterback position. Brian Hoyer completed just 18 of 39 passes with three interceptions against the depleted Dolphins secondary, which meant poor receiving efficiency for the pass-catchers. Eric Ebron played a big snap share with all the passing, and ran a route on 80% of dropbacks, easily a season high.
Ebron led the team with 12 targets including several end zone looks, and appeared to catch a touchdown in the first quarter but the ball jostled free as he went to the ground and instead wound up in the arms of Dolphins safety Steven Parker for the interception. Ebron finished with just five catches for 56 yards and no touchdown, while Jack Doyle did catch a 1-yard touchdown on one of his four targets.
Zach Pascal and Chester Rogers saw seven and four targets to lead the wide receivers but each caught just two balls, while Marcus Johnson played a big role in his debut — he ran routes on 88% of dropbacks — but was targeted just three times, catching one. Rogers' routes dipped quite a bit, which is more a result of Ebron's role because Rogers plays the slot. Pascal ran a route on every dropback and is still a WR3 option for as long as T.Y. Hilton is out.
With Mark Walton suspended, Kalen Ballage played a huge snap share for the Dolphins, though he totaled just 45 yards on 20 carries and four catches. He also got three rushes in the green zone, but didn't convert any for scores. Ballage notably already lost substantial playing time once this season, and he still doesn't appear up to the task of being the Dolphins lead back. But that usage is very enticing, particularly if it were to fall into the hands of another back.
Patrick Laird played ahead of Myles Gaskin, and they each ran five routes while Ballage ran 25, good for 64% of the dropbacks. Laird rushed twice and caught two passes while Gaskin caught his lone target for his only touch. I have a hard time trusting Ballage in Fantasy even with that workload given what he's shown us, but do think it's possible one of those backs could have value if they got a workload like Ballage's in a Miami offense that has at least been able to generate some green zone touches and will get the Giants and Bengals in Weeks 15 and 16 in the Fantasy playoffs — two plus matchups for running backs.
Last week I opined the loss of Preston Williams would mean a lot more DeVante Parker and a bump for Mike Gesicki, and those two led the Miami passing offense in targets at 10 and six. Gesicki didn't get the downfield looks I'd hoped for with just 29 air yards, catching three passes for 28 yards, while Parker's 120 air yards gave him an impressive 0.94 WOPR. He caught five passes for a nice 69 yards and is a reasonable WR3 going forward.
Outside those two and the backs, Allen Hurns saw a huge route spike to a full-time role in Williams' vacated spot, but was targeted just four times for 39 air yards. Albert Wilson also saw an increase in route share but to just 59% of dropbacks and he was targeted just three times. Both are worth keeping an eye on.
- Signal: Kalen Ballage — valuable role, still probably not very good; Allen Hurns/Marcus Johnson — full-time WR roles
- Noise: Marlon Mack — 46% snaps (usage is extremely game script dependent), Eric Ebron — usage spike was pretty massive, also likely due to game flow and/or matchup
Steelers 17 – Rams 12
- Snap Notes: Josh Reynolds: 95% (Brandin Cooks out), Todd Gurley: 74% (highest since Week 5), Jaylen Samuels: 55% (-10 vs. Week 9), Trey Edmunds: 28% (+1 vs. Week 9), Tony Brooks-James: 14% (+9 vs. Week 9)
- Key Stat: Gerald Everett — 7.5 targets, 70 air yards per game over his past six games
Both teams recorded defensive touchdowns and the Rams generated just three points offensively in a game the Steelers were able to win at home.
I was pretty excited about Jaylen Samuels' usage last week, and in particular his massive rate of high-value touches. He did see seven more targets in this one, but caught just three, and his route share curiously fell from 84% of dropbacks all the way down to 39% while the Steelers incorporated Trey Edmunds and Tony Brooks-James more. Samuels still handled 14 of the team's 24 running back rush attempts, though, and he was again subpar as a runner, gaining just 29 yards.
It's not like the other guys were better, with Brooks-James rushing six times for 11 yards and Edmunds four times for 1 yard, but what's most confusing is why the Steelers would choose to swap out Samuels routes for whatever that mix was when Samuels' chief skill is as a pass-catcher. Edmunds was the other back involved in the passing game with three targets and two catches for 14 yards. That was one of the weirder situations I saw this week, but James Conner is expected back next week so I'm not even going to try to sort out something that appears illogical.
James Washington's routes trended up a bit (61% of dropbacks), and he led the team with seven targets and 79 air yards, as well as his six catches for 90 yards and the game's lone offensive score. That was Washington's second straight solid performance so here's my obligatory mention that he played college ball with Mason Rudolph.
JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson are still running the full route shares, but both have been hard to trust in this offense. Each saw six targets, but neither hit double-digit PPR points for the second straight game, while Vance McDonald also fell short on his seven targets. If Washington is going to continue being heavily involved, it's hard to trust any of the four given Rudolph has averaged just 203 passing yards per game across his six starts.
Another weird thing I saw this week? Cooper Kupp catching zero of four targets. Clearly the Steelers made it a point to take away Jared Goff's top receiving option, and that seemed to cause issues as Goff completed just 54% of his passes for 5.9 yards per attempt.
Robert Woods was a predictable beneficiary with Brandin Cooks out, and he went for 11-7-95 with 113 air yards. Josh Reynolds played a full snap share in Cooks' spot, but caught just three of five targets for 49 yards.
It was Gerald Everett who led the team in targets, catching eight of 12 for 68 yards. I'm almost certainly trying to find a pattern in what has been an up-and-down year for him here, but Everett has been big in three straight road games (with at least 10 targets in each) with two duds at home sandwiched in between. Goff is notoriously much worse on the road, and maybe there's something about those game situations that leads to Everett targets.
That's not something I'd trust, though. I think the better way to look at Everett is to ignore the peaks and valleys — a lot of pass-catchers have them — and note that he's averaged 7.5 targets and five catches over his past six games. The Rams are back at home against the Bears in Week 11, but I'd be willing to use Everett if I was thin at the position. There just aren't many tight ends with that type of target upside, and Everett's also fifth at the position in air yards in that span despite the Rams' bye falling in that time period.
Todd Gurley played a big snap share but rushed just 12 times in the negative script. He was solid on the ground, gaining 73 yards, but matched Kupp's line of zero catches on four targets. Malcolm Brown returned and played ahead of Darrell Henderson, but Henderson did log eight snaps (Brown played 12) which is work Henderson was not getting earlier in the year.
- Signal: Gerald Everett — has been up and down, but the average volume has been very strong for a TE over several weeks now; Steelers pass-catchers — too many options in an unproductive passing game overall
- Noise: Cooper Kupp — 0 catches
Packers 24 – Panthers 16
- Snap Notes: Geronimo Allison: 62% (-1 vs. season average), Allen Lazard: 44% (third highest WR, also third straight week losing time), Jake Kumerow: 34% (+8 vs. Week 9), Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 16% (-49 vs. season average), Aaron Jones: 50% (-9 vs. season average), Jamaal Williams: 50% (+8 vs. season average), Panthers: very concentrated (three at 100%)
- Key Stat: Aaron Rodgers — 11.4 average depth of throw (season high by more than a yard)
In what became a snowy Lambeau Field game, the Panthers drove 83 yards over 18 plays in just 2:25 to fall one yard short of potentially forcing overtime, as Green Bay held on for a thrilling home win.
Aaron Jones scored three times while Jamaal Williams' receiving touchdown streak of four consecutive games came to an end. Williams did get a pair of green zone touches including a carry at the 1 on the final play of the half, which the Panthers blew up 3 yards into the backfield. Jones had three green zone touches, so the work was pretty closely split, as was the overall work as both backs rushed 13 times and didn't catch a pass on the day.
That last part is pretty interesting, because Jones and Williams had combined for 60 receptions across the season's first nine games (6.7 per game), but combined for one catchless target in Week 10. Aaron Rodgers talked about how the Week 9 dud in Los Angeles against the Chargers might have been good for the Packers, waking them up a bit, and it seems the way it woke them up was directly tied to criticism he's received for not being aggressive enough down the field.
Rodgers wound up with an average throw depth of 11.4, more than a yard higher than his previous weekly season high, and the first time he averaged more than 10 yards of depth since Week 1. In part because many of his 29 passes were downfield, Rodgers completed fewer than 60% of his passes for the first time since Week 3, but his 8.0 yards per attempt represented his fourth best figure in that stat this year. In other words, Rodgers — who fields criticism for taking safe throws — traded off safe throws for more difficult ones, and it mostly paid off even if his stat line was imperfect.
As for who Rodgers was throwing to downfield, Marquez Valdes-Scantling seems to have lost his spot on offense. MVS played just 11 snaps, while Allen Lazard and Jake Kumerow split the outside reps opposite Davante Adams and Geronimo Allison stayed in his normal role in the slot. That makes Valdes-Scantling droppable in all formats, and I'd rather have Lazard at this point, although Lazard's 50% route share leaves plenty to be desired.
But Lazard did finish second on the team with six targets and 90 air yards, though he caught just three for 27. Lazard also drew a pass interference penalty in the end zone on the penultimate play of the half that set up Williams' futile attempt from the 1. Lazard has now seen at least four targets in five straight games, averaging 63 air yards per game in that span, and though he's in a part-time role he does seem to have Rodgers' eye when he's out there.
Of course, a big reason for Rodgers' willingness to throw downfield is also tied to Davante Adams being back and healthy, and Adams was a dominant No. 1 with 10 targets and 164 air yards despite the low-volume passing game. His 0.86 WOPR was very strong, as was his 7-118 receiving line, and he should be locked into lineups the rest of the way. The rest of the Packers' receiving work was split between Jimmy Graham, Allison and Kumerow, with Graham easily third on the team in terms of air yards and actual yards thanks to a 48-yard reception.
The Panthers continued their highly concentrated offense, with each of Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore and Greg Olsen playing 100% of the offensive snaps, and Curtis Samuel running routes on 96% of dropbacks but giving up a few snaps on running plays for an extra tight end. Jarius Wright also ran routes on 77% of snaps as the slot guy, but he gives up a few more reps than Samuel for different formational alignments.
That makes the Panthers really easy to parse, and a lot of the production is dependent on game flow. Some weeks, when they lead, they lean heavily on Christian McCaffrey. Others, like this game, they ask Kyle Allen to do a bit more. McCaffrey is of course still heavily involved, but there's also plenty of receiving upside in such a concentrated passing attack.
Allen threw 43 times — 22 of them in the fourth quarter — and not one target went to a backup tight end or a depth receiver. Even Wright was targeted just twice, as Moore went 11-9-120 with 109 air yards, Olsen 10-8-98 with 84, and Samuel 8-4-35-1 with a lower efficiency line at his typically higher 14.0 aDOT with his team-high 112 air yards. It was nice to see Olsen's best game since the early part of the season, and Samuel found the end zone and remains more boom-or-bust on a weekly basis but with plenty of upside. Moore is the most notable line here as he continues to see extremely consistent No. 1 volume — at least eight targets in five straight and seven of nine overall — and remains a locked-in Fantasy starter who is due for some touchdown regression given he's scored just once all year.
As a possession receiver, it's perhaps fair to expect a lower touchdown rate from Moore than an average No. 1, and the Panthers do trend toward more rushing scores overall. But Moore had two red zone targets in this one to bring his total for the season to six. That's the same number as McCaffrey, who has three receiving scores, and Samuel leads the team at eight red zone looks and four receiving scores. Even for a possession receiver, Moore's been unlucky to have just one score on 79 targets and 54 catches. Expect a few more of those the rest of the way to unlock more of a weekly ceiling.
McCaffrey also pitched in six catches on seven targets while rushing 20 times for 108 yards and a score and very nearly adding a second on the game's final play, which was so close it had to be reviewed and probably would have stood had it been called a touchdown on the field. It was ruled short and the play stood that way as no touchdown.
- Signal: Marquez Valdes-Scantling — fifth in WR snaps and routes, essentially benched; Allen Lazard — if anyone's emerging as a consistent second receiving option (and it does remain muddy), it's Lazard
- Noise: D.J. Moore — one touchdown this season on 79 targets (six red zone targets)
Vikings 28 – Cowboys 24
- Snap Notes: Irv Smith: 74% (+10 vs. previous season high), Alexander Mattison: 18% (+9 vs. Week 9), Cowboys: five main starters in 11 personnel all at 79% or higher
- Key Stat: Dak Prescott — 555 air yards (most in Week 10, fourth most by any QB this season)
Sunday Night Football brought us a good, close matchup of two of the NFC's top teams, a precursor to another such matchup on Monday night. The Vikings got out to an early lead on two 1-yard touchdowns to Kyle Rudolph, and they predictably went on to run 36 times versus 32 pass attempts. The Cowboys, also intent on running whenever they can, were more or less forced to let Dak Prescott throw more late, and his 19 fourth-quarter passes gave them a 47/22 pass/run ratio by game's end.
Stefon Diggs had another down game without Adam Thielen in the lineup, and it's mostly been the result of the reduced, and conservative, passing. Thielen has played sparingly over the past four games, and while Diggs' 20% target share and 34% share of air yards in that span leaves plenty to be desired on their, both marks pretty easily led the team while the next three target-getters have been underneath options (Dalvin Cook, with a negative-1.9 aDOT, Irv Smith at a 5.6 aDOT and Kyle Rudolph at a 7.3 aDOT).
Diggs, of course, did go off for more than 140 yards in each of the first two games in this four-game stretch. He's going to continue having some boom-or-bust to his profile due to the offense, and Week 10 was an example of the bust side of that with Kirk Cousins settling into an average throw depth of just 5.9 yards.
Dalvin Cook rushed 26 times for 97 yards and a score, though his six green zone attempts across three different drives indicate he could have easily posted a multi-touchdown game. Cook led the team with seven targets, which he caught for 86 yards despite them totaling negative-23 air yards, which is to say they were largely designed screens and throws behind the line of scrimmage. His value remains extremely strong.
Rudolph and Smith were both involved with the Vikings continuing their two-TE scheme. Bisi Johnson's 4-2-25 line was further evidence that Cousins just wasn't pushing the ball down the field. We'll likely see Thielen miss one more game with the bye coming in Week 12, and if that's the case these will again be the major players in the passing game with the game flow determining a lot about who produces. I'll still be starting Diggs where I have him, because I'm stubborn, even as the Vikings should control the game against Denver.
Alexander Mattison also chipped in eight carries for 52 yards, and looked good as the No. 2. Ameer Abdullah has been seeing some offensive snaps in recent weeks — and caught a touchdown in Week 9 — so this was a positive for Mattison's handcuff value.
The Cowboys are another highly concentrated team right now, as they've gotten healthier and have stuck pretty closely with their 11 personnel lineup. Tony Pollard hardly played with Ezekiel Elliott in on 99% of snaps, while Blake Jarwin and Tavon Austin mixed in a bit — three of Jarwin's four targets came on the final drive as the Cowboys tried to set up a Hail Mary — but for the most part the snaps at the five skill position spots were concentrated.
Of those five, Jason Witten was quietest with a 5-2-17 line, while Elliott totaled just 63 yards on 20 carries and two catches. Elliott did get a green zone rush from the 6-yard line early in the fourth, but was stuffed, and he was later stuffed on two carries from the 11 on second and third down with 2 yards to gain each time, leading to a failed fourth-down try on the Cowboys' last real chance to score. Prior to those two rushes, Prescott was 6/7 for 79 yards on the drive, marching Dallas from their own 6 into the red zone, and much has been made about the galaxy brain choice to take the ball out of his hands for two huge downs with the game on the line.
As far as Fantasy is concerned, Zeke's workload remains strong, and his lack of production in a tougher matchup isn't a huge issue, nor is his lack of receiving production the past two weeks as he continues to play nearly every snap and run a huge route percentage.
I've buried the lede long enough, which was that Dak was incredible, and the Cowboys really pushed the ball down the field as Prescott totaled 555 air yards, good for the fourth-highest single-game total for any quarterback this season. Each of the main three receivers totaled over 100 air yards and caught a touchdown, with Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper both posting top five air yards totals for the week.
Gallup set a season high with 165 air yards on 10 targets (4-76-1 receiving), while Cooper tied his own season high at 166 air yards on 14 looks (11-147-1 receiving). And Cobb's 114 air yards were a season high for him, too, as he notched his first 100-yard game with the Cowboys, catching six of eight targets for 106 and his score. Obviously there won't be that much downfield volume to go around most weeks, but the upside in this vertical Cowboys passing attack is very clear.
- Signal: Kirk Cousins — after a three-game stretch from Week 6-8 with an average throw depth over 8.0 each week where he was fun and good, Cousins' aDOT has been below 7.0 for three straight which is not fun and bad
- Noise: Cowboys WRs — each of the top three set season highs in air yards, which indicates how high-volume this game was
Seahawks 27 – 49ers 24
- Snap Notes: D.K. Metcalf: 97% (+2 vs. Week 9 season high), Tyler Lockett: 72% (leg bruise), Josh Gordon: 38% (Seahawks debut), Jacob Hollister: 78% (-2 vs. Week 9 season high), Deebo Samuel: 83% (+20 vs. season average), Kendrick Bourne: 70% (+29 vs. season average), Emmanuel Sanders: 30% (rib injury), Tevin Coleman: 50% (+2 vs. season average), Matt Breida: 28% (-13 vs. Week 9, ankle injury), Raheem Mostert: 22% (+19 vs. Week 9) Ross Dwelley: 91% (+21 vs. Week 9 season high)
- Key Stat:
Monday Night Football couldn't have been a crazier cap to an already wild week, and I honestly can't even begin to recap everything that went down in that game. There were five lost fumbles — one returned for a score by each team, and another preventing a scoring chance before half for the Seahawks as Jaquiski Tartt stripped D.K. Metcalf at the 2 — and an interception by each team, plus about five more potential interceptions from Jimmy Garoppolo and also that huge missed field goal in overtime that could have given the 49ers a win that ultimately went to Seattle.
That ridiculous sentence doesn't come close to doing this game justice, but you're not here to read all that and there's a lot to get to. What's important from a Fantasy sense is it was back-and-forth, and with both teams getting multiple overtime drives there was elevated volume.
Seattle went run-heavy, as they are wont to do, and Russell Wilson's 12 overtime attempts only brought him to 34 total on the game, against 34 rushes overall for the Seahawks. Chris Carson played nearly every snap, rushing 25 times for 89 yards and a score, and adding three catches on four targets for a solid five high-value touches. While Carson fumbled yet again, it didn't really impact his playing time, and besides his biggest threat Rashaad Penny lost a crucial fumble on one of his two touches.
The good news for Penny is the Seahawks don't seem to care about fumbles! The bad news is they don't seem to care about playing him whether he fumbles or not. He's a handcuff only in the event of a Carson injury.
Josh Gordon made his debut for Seattle, and he didn't play much early but got extended run later after Tyler Lockett suffered a leg bruise that knocked him from the game. Gordon wound up running routes on 50% of dropbacks, and was the first read on two crucial conversions, catching both slants in tight coverage.
Meanwhile, D.K. Metcalf remained a full-time player, even setting a season high in snap share, and caught six of 10 targets for 70 yards. He didn't see many vertical targets in a game where Seattle didn't take many shots downfield, and his 90 air yards were still easily the most on the team, good for a 49% share of the team's total.
If there was one downside to Metcalf's day, he also allowed a couple of key plays to fall through his hands. They weren't necessarily drops, but they were catchable balls in big spots late, including a third-down pass on the Seahawks second of three overtime drives. It didn't impact Metcalf's usage at all, as Wilson went back to him on the final overtime drive to set up the game-winning field goal, but — and I'm totally speculating here — it might open the door a bit more for Gordon to grow into a bigger role of the offense, because the contrast of those plays to Gordon's two clutch catches was just frankly hard to miss and the kind of thing that can stick with coaches.
Though Luke Willson returned from the injury that knocked him out of Week 9, Jacob Hollister maintained a huge role as the lead TE, and was again very good, turning 10 targets at just 32 air yards into an 8-62-1 line. There's going to be a crunch for targets in this offense eventually, but you have to like what Hollister's done the past two weeks especially when thinking back to Will Dissly's production as Russell Wilson's tight end. Hollister looks capable of being a version of that, and will be a solid streaming option going forward.
Lockett wasn't the only injury, and in fact the 49ers dealt with more. Already without George Kittle, San Francisco lost Emmanuel Sanders to a rib injury early, then also lost Matt Breida to a re-aggravation of his nagging ankle injury late in the game. That left them very thin in the pass-catching corps, and by the end of the game it was clear that Deebo Samuel was the preferred target, with Kendrick Bourne also playing a big role but not rising to the occasion.
Samuel led the team with 11 targets and 95 air yards, going 8-112 with 71 yards after the catch. All were career highs, but he certainly saw more volume both because of the injuries and Garoppolo throwing a season-high 46 passes, nine more than any other game this year. Samuel is certainly worth an add, but his value will hinge on whether he's the top option in the passing game or the third option with a strong top two when Kittle and Sanders are healthy. He's only a situational Fantasy starter going forward.
Bourne saw eight targets and 78 air yards, but had multiple huge drops, and I would guess he will lose playing time as a result. He scored early in the contest and put up a solid 4-42-1, but can't be trusted in Fantasy. Backup tight end Ross Dwelley also played a huge snap share and saw seven looks, but brought in just three for 24 yards. His 84% route share makes him a viable deeper league option should Kittle miss another game.
As for the backs, Tevin Coleman played his typical share of about half the snaps, and even after Breida left his role didn't increase as we just saw more of No. 3 Raheem Mostert. Coleman did catch four passes and continues to run routes on at least 40% of dropbacks on a weekly basis, but again, the 49ers had elevated pass volume in this one. San Francisco also remarkably ran just one play in the green zone, the 10-yard touchdown pass to Bourne, which limited any scoring potential for their backs.
Coleman's still a solid RB2 in most matchups, and wasn't exactly bad with 72 total yards and the reception spike showing he retains value in passing scripts, but there's clearly a cap on his touch upside — remember, his one 20-carry game came in the slopfest at Washington and his four-touchdown game came on just 13 total touches.
- Signal: Josh Gordon — not a big part of the offense yet, did some good things after Lockett's injury and could earn a larger role especially if Lockett misses time; Jacob Hollister — maintained a large role, solid TE option; Ross Dwelley — viable TE streamer if Kittle misses more time
- Noise: 49ers — 46 pass attempts; Deebo Samuel — looked great, but certainly benefited from elevated pass volume, injuries to Kittle and Sanders