The delayed definition of the debt agreement will not lead to changes in the strict currency control system that governs today in Argentina. Although the panorama of government dollar liabilities has diminished, the exchange rate is not affected, at least in the short term, as he knew Infobae from official sources.
Therefore, savers, investors, importers and anyone who requires dollars must get used to the current currency scenario. The central bank is in no hurry to change the rules, even though he had expected a debt settlement to ease inventories. He still wants to test whether the good news means a reduction in demand, something that remains to be seen.
When it comes to buying dollars for hoarding, the allowed $ 200 per month, with a penalty of 30% of the PAIS tax, may hardly work for savers but they are too many for the exchange system. At the central bank, they complain the 630 million dollars that 3.3 million Argentines took in July through the “solidarity dollar”.
Although some of these dollars were deposited in the system, there are also some that will feed the supply of the informal dollar without being enough to silence the price. However, the advent of the debt agreement could reduce the gap between the official and the blue dollar, something that has already happened so far in the case of stock market dollars and “calculated with liquid” thanks to a set of tweezers. regulatory between BCRA and National Securities Commission (CNV).
At the central bank, they confirm that there are no blocked imports and that the controversial message A7030 fulfilled its mission and has already received all the necessary corrections.
If retail buyers had not taken these dollars, the unit chaired by Miguel Pesce would have bought them to accumulate reserves, one of its goals even though it still involves more emissions of pesos, which then need to be sterilized. In the center, they believe that Leliq to absorb weights can grow “much more”.
This expectation is, of course, subject to the level of the fiscal deficit decided by the government. Own Alberto Fernández He said it was not a problem at the beginning of the quarantine, because the priority was to help those who need it. The extent of the pandemic will thus determine for the center which part of the pesos issued to the Treasury will be required to sterilize.
Finally, it should not be forgotten that the small sum of $ 200 per month was sold by the previous government on October 28, the same day as the lost election. the authorship of Cambiemos in a way takes the political urgency out of flexibility.
They also roughly explain the need to maintain restrictions on exporters that have been in force since June, another aspect of stocks that will not have immediate changes. And that after the uprising of communications A7030 of May 28, which prevented access to dollars for imports to those who had deposits abroad, among other restrictions, the market regained its normalcy.
“We do not work in DJAI mode”, explains a voice from BCRA, referring to the defended statements of the former Trade Secretary, Guillemo Moreno. “There are no blocked imports, the operations are performed almost automatically. Communication A7030 completed its mission and we have already made all the necessary corrections “, he added, accepting that at first there was some noise with his application.
Due to structural reasons exacerbated by the pandemic, the Central Bank did not go with the second quarter with ease, with harvest dollars usually plentiful. Between April and May, it had to sell $ 1.226 million to supply the market with dollars. With the strengthening of inventories to importers on May 28, the situation reversed in June and bought $ 672 million.
In July, even with fully operational currency restrictions, it sold more than $ 500 million. And any sign of economic recovery in the post-pandemic also means greater pressure on the dollar from importers, both in the official market and in the parallel market. In the latter case, it also plays against the pandemic; The informal economy has physical limitations for making transactions and in addition, the offer that tourism usually leaves and ends up in the caves disappears.
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Radiography of the debt agreement: what maturities will this government pay and what legacy will it leave for those who follow