The only options that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei weighs at his table do not even make a handful. They are: regime change or absolute behavior change . Only the two. Currently, there is no third exit option while the United States and the theocratic regime reached an unprecedented level of tension over the last 40 years . Penalties can quickly lead to an absolute collapse of their numbers in an upward climate of social unrest. Even before the warnings, the local economy showed deep precariousness, low productivity and high inflation. When he learned that he could no longer sell his barrels to China India and six other countries the Shiite authorities experienced a first blood reaction. Propagandist and risky. They threatened to block the Hormuz section a basic channel for the mineral trade and the gateway to the Persian Gulf . It is transported 3% of the world's crude oil . Not only their own, but also the Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Bahrain and other manufacturers.
In this way he manages to show himself crooked and active in that stretch without blocking it. Their attack boats – responding to IRGC- continue with their sabotage and are increasing in the zone. Bet on neither Saudi Arabia or EAU – two of their hard enemies – will launch a direct attack on their territory. Yes they could beat small boats, but that's not a big concern. For Iran, it is important not to transfer armed conflicts to their country . He always avoided it.
Theocracy had no opportunity to renounce . Tehran does not have a modern infrastructure for open war and on several simultaneous fronts despite attempts by the world to perceive it as an armed force . Much less about the conflict is against nations with an almost futuristic technique and an aviation that surpasses it in strength, capacity and number. How to win a confrontation without an advanced air force?
The regime is very weak military . Excessive more in the sky. Their ships are old, almost obsolete and most of their war material goes back to the years of the infinite and bloody war with Iraq in the 80s. " In 10 hours, your Air Force would disappear only if they met the United Arab Emirates " a retired American general who knows the Middle East as some confidence. Iran is 20 times larger than the UAE . However, the Sunni country is far surpassed in arsenal and training. And economy. What would happen if, in a hypothetical contest, they joined USA Israel, Arabia Saudi Arabia and other neighbors ?
the moment of history – since the enemy has come into confrontation with us with every possible capacity – is the decisive moment for the Islamic revolution "said the general Hossein Salami of IRGC on Thursday morning, rhetoric and reality are confused in the statements of the radical uniformed. On the contrary, thousands of jihadists were also called upon to look for the priest .
The threats and a greater presence of ] The United States in the region reveals another of the red lines that Iran would not cross . The escalation of hostilities proposed by the regime must have the expertise of not compromising American life . Doing so would be a fatal mistake that would find an immediate and devastating answer. Tehran knows this perfectly .
These groups consist of Pakistani and Afghan mercenaries to whom the regime pays them a fortune. The salary of these entrepreneurs doubled it as an Iranian doctor in his own country . Infinitely superior to it as a teacher or a worker. This is also a source of anger and protest among the population. The little money it has is intended for foreign terrorists .
In addition, IRGC of Soleimani receives one-third of the total of the nation's budget. Citizens know that it is time for money to go to other priorities instead of funding the regime's maneuvers outside its borders and its geopolitical goals. Among the mouths that feed the Shiite treasure is the most expensive: the terrorist organization Hezbollah .
Khamenei will periodically move these tokens in their sphere of influence. The largest of these is precisely the Lebanese who may be its spearhead to harass from the northern strategic partner of the states United States in the region: Israel . He did it already before. It will do so from Lebanon and Syria where the presence of the theory is more evident. In this other country – where both they and the Russians work as if Bashar Al-Assad did not exist – there are bases and launch sites for Iranian missiles found on the Israeli radar. Tel Aviv would solve his destruction in minutes when it feels that the danger becomes more tangible.
Meanwhile, to simulate strength it is likely that the highest leader continues with threats through small actions and provocations. The divisions of four commercial vessels are a selection of it. It would be more. That's right: have the necessary caution not to break boundaries that don't have evacuation doors .
Another part of this chess was moved on the board. It is the one who shifts the president Hassan Rouhani. At the heart of the sanctions that stifled an already devastated economy, he warned Europe that it will not continue to limit its production of heavy water and enriched uranium. It was a threat that triggered the alarm in the other signatory countries of the Joint Action Plan in 2015 and was abandoned by the United States in 2018.
Rouhani claims only one Case: Some Economic Oxygen Contrary to Punishment Washington . Germany, Great Britain and France prefer to keep the threat of a nuclear weapon in the lake. They must convince Donald Trump to lift the sanctions. It will not happen at the moment despite the pressure they will exercise.
The sky that hangs over Khamenei begins to darken. He knows that is in extreme weakness : he has no military capacity to face an open war, on his land and much less enduring. It doesn't have enough resources. The sanctions will finally drown him financially and economically. Nor will it be easy for him to enter his nuclear threat . Pressing too much will also be against the European countries who hold a dialogue (for the moment) friendly. Hit with their militaries and terrorist groups, but without exaggerating . It must be surgical if it does not want to let go of a conflict that it cannot control.
The rhetoric process and the escalation of the action will take a while. " I bet that for six months, Iran will sit down to finally speak to the United States ," explains a senior state analyst from Israel to Infobae . It is the same that explains that the only possible way out of the theory is an "absolute change of behavior ". What is that mutation? Farewell to the nuclear program, the final point of rhetorical aggression and absolute abandonment for financing terrorist groups abroad such as Hezbollah . " It's hard to happen, but it's the most realistic scenarios ," he says.
At this time, Khamenei is discussed. Do you follow the advice of the Soleimani hostility architect and determined to go to a more bloody confrontation or lend more to Rouhani strategy? He is likely to use both: his general of escalation and his president of the diplomatic table . The first is not aware of the danger in which he is immersed and " is an extremist who only serves to situations of irregular warfare, as in Iraq ," said the informed observer. The other wants him to survive some of his worked core programs.
It may be imagined that some time before the end of the year, a top-level summit will take place, as happened with Korea. North and meets between Jong Kim-un and Trump. However, an error on the head of Quds Forces would collapse the regime and power that today concentrates the ayatollahen and mullahen for 40 years would collapse.