Evo Morales won his fourth election in a row, but it is no longer the tsunami that was in the three previous votes that won by 25 and up to 39 points difference in the second. That is why refuses to acknowledge even a probable and historic second round that can take him out after 14 years of power . On Sunday evening, the Bolivians went to sleep with him and felt that there would be a vote but without any certainty that it would be done, since the Supreme Electoral Tribunal failed to close the official preliminary examination. A similar uncertainty occurred in the referendum on February 21
Morales has six points left to get the vote he does not want to lose. His confidence in obtaining it is placed in 17 percent of the vote of the voters in the most scattered areas of the country, where he assumes that he is destroying his opponent Carlos Mesa and in support of the Bolivians, they mostly live in Brazil and Argentina, where it has always been swept away. According to preliminary and unofficial results, the Bolivian president received nearly 60 percent of the vote abroad, which generates the expectation of raising at least one point in his vote, which reached 45.2 percent, compared to 38.1 percent of Mesa, according to TSE's number of shares, by transfer of preliminary election results (TREP). Morale's biggest effort is to move on to more than 50 percent of the vote in the countryside, which would prevent the vote even if the presidential candidate for Citizen Community also rises by the re-percentage of zero votes and whites, reaching 5 percent. At present, TSE shows a difference of 7 percent, which would ensure the second round. The only authorized polling officer for the unofficial fast number, the Colombian Viacencia, confirmed the ballot with his test which registered a difference of only five points between the first and the second, insufficient for Evo Morales to avoid the second round, scheduled for 15 December.
When the TSE cancels the bill or extends the wait for official results the danger of a social explosion that could be fatal to Bolivian democracy will increase, since the representatives of more than half of the electorate are convinced that it will to be a vote, as they said on Sunday night. Even Mesa was the first to go out to celebrate the second round as if he had won the vote but hours later he rushed to warn that TSE was interrupting TREP, so he called the citizens into a vigil to avoid manipulation of the electoral process in favor of Bolivia's president. The OAS observer mission also asked TSE not to cancel the bill. An election authority has said Infobae that expectations have been fulfilled by disseminating the results of the voting record that Sunday evening, but now the official calculation must be started, which is the one that is finally valid and for which it available longer, according to law.
In addition to the uncertainty remaining in the most open election of the last 14 years, yesterday's vote MAS, ratified by Evo Morales, as the country's first political majority and reaffirmed Mesa as the most powerful opponent for the past 37 years . Not even the best vote he made to Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada, to Víctor Paz or Hugo Banzer presidents in recent decades is approaching that achieved yesterday of Mesa, which managed to concentrate during the last 15 days of the "penalty vote" campaign to Morales, expressed in four city halls in different cities, and capitalized on the so-called "useful vote" to stop Evo.
From now on, Bolivian politics will go through both actors, which concentrate 85 percent of the preference, thus opening a new cycle and a scenario of quasi-bipartisanship. If there is a vote on December 15, it is quite possible that the next Bolivian president is Carlos Mesa, given the support declared yesterday by the surprising South Korean candidate Chi Hyung who was third, and of Bolivia say no, Oscar Ortiz, who is the biggest defeated of this election by concluding fourth in the vote.
The second round if there is one, it fell across the entire Santa Cruz region, which again became the opposition fortress in Bolivia, as it was in the first elections that Morales won. The MAS superior bicycle was terminated, even in the Bolivian highlands, since the president's party fell in almost all regions of the country according to the Viaciencia bill. The vote, especially urban and young, has chosen this time for the balance of power. Mesa prevailed in at least three regions. E vo Morales won again, but he must adopt his new reality with deep wear and tear . Bolivia woke up this Monday with a fourth election that has not yet ended, unlike the three previous ones where the "Evo tsunami" was second to none.