In addition to currency control, the central bank insists on the daily sale of dollars to deliver the city of Buenos Aires and convert the exchange rate back into a pressure cooker. Without a doubt, there is no alternative if you want to reach the general elections of October 27 with relative financial calm.
Then, on Monday, December 28, it became the real day D. Businessmen and economists who were in the IDEA Colloquium did not discuss the election results because they understand that the same thing will happen as in STEP. President Mauricio Macri blamed them for that when he said in his video conference: "I know that on PASS Day they ended everything" .
So things, the central question is what will happen from October 28 with the control of change, with the exchange rate and with renegotiation – with removals – that there will be the external debt . The combination of doubts that disturbs all Argentines (not just businessmen and economists) will be answered by whoever is chosen by figures who will be announced to occupy sensitive positions.
Movement, Alberto Fernández clearly excludes the possibility of following the current president of the central bank, Guido Sandleris, as the Red Circle requested, which met in Mar del Plata throughout the week. "When they talked to me I asked them to take care of the reservations and they are determined to spend until the last reservations" which was launched on the C5N news channel. So, would you ask Sandleris to stop intervening if elected?
In this context, there are few who suspect a strong jump in the dollar to liquidate Leliq's and thus begin to lower the rate of interest at more reasonable levels.
The Dollar Stock Market (MEP) and Cash with Liquidation (CCL) above $ 70 opened the debate about the fair value of the greenback in Argentina and even remarks on the prices of devaluation expectations ranging from 10% to 15%.
When they comment on the city, in October, BCRA sells an average of $ 95 million a day. Between PASO and August 30, before stocks, BCRA sold an average of 146 million daily . Continuing to try the inevitable will therefore be an impossible task, but there is not much room to shoot before the election either.
As the Treasury Department has registered, between September 2 and the first week of October, BCRA accumulated in the foreign exchange market for approximately $ 1.9 billion. "In the Ministry of Finance, they say the rate in October is higher because it corresponds to the first week of the month when the $ 10,000 purchase quota is renewed, but the latter will stabilize lower. BCRA's sales rate is very high for a government that announced stocks to take care of reserves " insisted economist Maximiliano Montenegro.
Montenegro warned: Fixed-time (private) deposits had their second major fall since the implementation of the "exchange rate". Last Tuesday, deposits of deposits fell by 27,547 million pesos, corresponding to 2.4% in a single day .
After PASO until the stocks there was a strong outflow of the large depositors in pesos. Since the stocks were implemented, those who can and will run to the official dollar are the smallest savers . In the final days before the election, the dollar deposit of deposits is still led by smaller deposits.
But it was also expanded to large depositors, which could eventually be dollarized at a higher exchange rate: through the purchase of bonds or Argentinian equities listed in New York (dollar sacks or liquidated securities). That in turn pushes the price of "alternative dollars", which came to quote between 71 and 74 pesos. In addition, part of the outflow of deposits (large or small) can be derived from the purchase of dollars in the parallel market, where the price rose to 68 pesos.
From STEP, the private fixed terms $ 130,693 million fell. They went from $ 1,246,848 million (the Friday before the election) to $ 1,116,165 million (15/10 latest available data from BCRA). That is, they decreased by 10.5% during that period.
Even since currency control was applied (in early September), the private sector's fixed-term deposits accumulate with a fall of 7 1%. Even with the impossibility of ending up in dollars for companies and with a ceiling of $ 10,000 for natural persons, the withdrawal of fixed-term deposits continued.
That is, the local macroeconomic weakness is very visible and savers and entrepreneurs quickly They turn to the dollar so that their savings do not lose value. The key will lie in political leadership so that the transition is organized and the situation is not accelerated.